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Postby Sven18 on October 4th, 2019, 11:13 pm
B&MGuy35 wrote:
JackGlass wrote:They made the right move by rejecting this horrible offer.

Just looking at the comments on social media, everyone seemed to hate this idea. Six Flags has built up a bad reputation, as being cheap and stingy when it comes to investing and taking care of their parks. Cedar Fair has built up a great reputation.

If Six Flags took over Cedar Fair, the quality of those parks would almost certainly decline. If Cedar Fair took over Six Flags, the quality of the Six Flags parks, would almost certainly increase.

Six Flags needs to invest in the parks they have and clean up their image before they try taking over companies like Cedar Fair and Sea World Entertainment.


Everyone is missing the point. Part of the offer was to keep CF board members on running the company. So it would basically transform SF into a CF run company not the other way around since CF would have control over the company.


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The offer was $20 below what would make it appealing to shareholders and compensate them for huge benefits of MLP structure. 18% premium on stock price was ridiculous and just 12% above target price. Also, most of the deal being in SF stock is not appealing. SF stock is down huge in the last year. Not enticing to be offered SF stock. Having CF in exec positions doesn't cover for the low ball offer. Also, SF is struggling to have organic growth, CF is not only producing it, but has a bunch of new assets coming or just purchased that have massive upside potential. Schlitterbahn results are great already. The outdoor sports complex event bookings in year 2 what was projected for year 4 or 5 according to CF. Saw Mill Creek was the second biggest booker for the Outdoor sports complex after CP properties when bought. CF can expand that more and have the indoor sports complex coming which means more revenue off theme park season. The Carowinds hotel is opening in November and Wonderland hotel in early 2021. CF has no need to sell or merge and stated they aren't for sale. They however had to hear out any offer as a fiduciary responsibility to share holders, they could be sued otherwise. They couldn't turn down a great offer, say if it were $100 share or something without bringing it to shareholders to a vote, if a really big premium was offered.

The actually offer is being questioned by a few analysts b/c of the low per share price. There is some speculation SF might have another below expectation quarter coming again perpetuating the lack of organic growth narrative on Wall Street. This offer was a display they are trying to do something. There is also the notion that they are having trouble finding a CEO they want, hence let CF's management take over. The entire thing is odd b/c SF in many ways, ie...SF is pushing memberships as their new grand model the last 2 years. CF is wholly against memberships and in their analyst day presentation spent time explaining why they are against a membership structure. They think it hurts pricing power. So, SF in theory wanted a management team against the core of their new model started 2 years ago. A management team pushing the destination park, hotel/resort model for years and their 2 additions this year were in that area. This is an area SF is not really into beyond Darien Lakes(operating lease park). Great Adventure is the place a hotel could work. GAdv has no close by lodging and they have a lot of land. Other big parks like SFMM have plenty of nearby lodging and the park hasn't a bunch of extra suitable land/spots like GAdv
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Postby JackGlass on October 5th, 2019, 7:14 am
I think Great Adventure was originally supposed to build cabins, similar to Light House Point. This was part of the original plan for Great Adventure (Pre Six Flags)

Something like that would be awesome. Especially with all the wooded land that Great Adventure has.
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Postby Sven18 on October 22nd, 2019, 1:50 pm
Q3 earnings report at market close Tuesday 10/22, Conf call wednesday morning.

Prediction:
SF misses outright or under performs ie...revenue up YoY, but the internals disappoint and the lack of abilityto demonstrate organic growth continues. The announced results and the call the next day usually doesn't forecast well, usually bodes to a "pre announced miss", as SF normally announcing pre market the day of the conf call. Q2 they put out mediocre results in a 11pm press release before morning conf call. Btw, Q3 2018 was a miss.
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Postby Sven18 on October 22nd, 2019, 3:33 pm
As Predicted not a great Q3 for SF: Stock down 5% at time of posting in first 30 mins post release

https://investors.sixflags.com/news-and ... -210441595

Revenue: 621M increase 1M
Net Income: 200M decrease 5M
EBIDTA: 307M increase 507K
Attendance: 14M increase 400K
Total per cap: 42.44 decrease 0.58
Admit per cap: 25.17 decrease
In park spend: 17.27 increase 0.11
Deferred Revenue 198M increase 5M/2%
Sponsorships International: 26M decrease 26% or 11M

9months numbers are also down but to get the full picture might have to wait till full year to see how if some of the numbers are made up by the difference in how membership revenue is claimed. After the 1st 12months memberships revenue is claimed per month, which means Q4 may be bigger than past years as the big membership push which started in 2018 starts to get possibly a significant number beyond 12 months.


JRA Interview:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/video/s ... vp-AAJbf5x

WTF..JRA acting like a teenage boy rejected and pretending they never asked the girl out. Essentially calling CF offer a rumor.
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Postby JackGlass on October 22nd, 2019, 4:55 pm
Six Flags needs to learn from Cedar Fair. The rides draw people in, the experience keeps them coming back.

Anderson keeps trying to make the point "We are financially disciplined" There's a difference between being financially disciplined and being so cheap that it hurts your business.

9% of revenue on Capital expenditures is low. Only 15% of that is used for in park infrastructure??? That is terrible.

They need an Industry professional
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Postby Sven18 on October 22nd, 2019, 5:07 pm
JackGlass wrote:Six Flags needs to learn from Cedar Fair. The rides draw people in, the experience keeps them coming back.

Anderson keeps trying to make the point "We are financially disciplined" There's a difference between being financially disciplined and being so cheap that it hurts your business.

9% of revenue on Capital expenditures is low. Only 15% of that is used for in park infrastructure??? That is terrible.

They need an Industry professional


Can't wait for the conf call, It's going to be just like the last few. JRA saying we have records but the increases are nothing,,,revenue increase 1M, EBIDTA increase 507K, these are paltry increases and net income was down 5M, as well as per caps.

The organic growth argument with analyst will be on again...

"The increase in attendance was primarily driven by the higher Active Pass Base growth in the parks the company began operating on June 1, 2018, and the new park in Rockford, Illinois."

So they are basically saying legacy parks as a whole are stagnant and increases are really coming from the added operating lease parks. That's where the 400K attendance increase came from. The lack of organic growth is why analysts have been all over SF for the last 18months. SF refuses to do in depth break out to show how much the new parks added to prove the legacy parks are growing. The fact is as a whole the growth is either non existent or so low to be negligible hence they don't break it out like Cedar Fair did in their Labor Day Q3 preview report and their investor presentation
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Postby Sven18 on October 23rd, 2019, 9:32 am
Conf call was a JRA special. Defensive making the same excuses which Wall Street hasn't bought. Stock went from down 5% pre call to down 11% post call. JRA had bees up his bonnet and at what point told an analyst I can't believe you asked that? JRA is usually pretty surly but he was at a new level. Just like on CNBC interview he's calling the M&A talk in his prepared openings statement with Cedar Fair pure rumor..."stuff reported by some people." He's acting completely dismissive there was any offer though nobody blatantly asked yes or no did you make an offer.

Cedar Fair and SEAS stocks down about 2% in sympathy with SF down 11%. Wall Street sees SF pretty mediocre numbers despite good weather in most of the country in Q3 and thus may be expecting similar from others, yet to report
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on October 23rd, 2019, 12:13 pm
Could the CF merger/takeover have really been just a speculation and not really something SF was attempting?
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Postby Sven18 on October 23rd, 2019, 12:52 pm
CoasterRiderSC wrote:Could the CF merger/takeover have really been just a speculation and not really something SF was attempting?


I think SF floated something, it got leaked and Cedar Fair shot it down quickly. SF instead of acting spurned should be finding away to convince Wall Street as they still aren't buying what SF &JRA selling on the earnings. They keep saying we reporting record revenue and WS is not impressed by a 1M revenue increase YoY Q3. Every time they have reported the last 4 quarters they have been hit by 5% to 12% the next day, the stock recovers some as people buy on the drop and collect some dividends and then it sells off on underwhelming earnings again. Stock down from $63 to $45 from Q1(feb) thru Q3(today), SEAS and Cedar Fair are up in the same time frame.
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