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Postby anewman35 on May 6th, 2019, 6:40 pm
Jodon wrote:
CoasterRiderSC wrote:
anewman35 wrote:Nobody cares. What goes Google mean? What does Amazon mean? What does Apple mean? Most people who go to Six Flags have absolutely no idea what Six Flags means, beyond it being a Theme Park chain. Except for perhaps a period of slight confusion if Six Flags Over Texas had to change their name (or if it kept its name but became unconnected from the overall chain), nothing would change. The Six Flags 'brand' would not change at all.


I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with you (and Sven) about brand identity. Brands like Apple, Microsoft, IBM, AT&T, P&G, Disney, and YES Six Flags have a meaning with their customers. Customers have thoughts and opinions about the brands.


I think you are missing their point. I believe that they are not arguing that the brands do not have an identity, but they are saying that the meaning behind the brand names do not mean much/anything to most consumers. I can guarantee you that if you asked every person walking in to Great America, they would have a general idea about what the Six Flags brand is, but have zero clue how Six Flags started or became the corporate name.


Correct. "Six Flags" means something to people. But it means 'Amusement parks', it doesn't mean 'the six flags that flew over the state of Texas'. The name matters, the story behind the name does not.
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Postby JackGlass on May 23rd, 2019, 10:35 am
2018 Theme park attendance.

If these numbers are accurate. Six Flags lacked organic growth at their 3 largest parks.

Great America was flat despite being open until the end of December

Great Adventure was flat

Magic Mountain increased by 2.6% even though it now operates all year


https://www.aecom.com/content/wp-conten ... 2018-2.pdf
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Postby ChicagoCoasters on May 23rd, 2019, 5:37 pm
You have to realize we didn't add a huge crowd gatherer. Hangover is just a super sized carnival ride. That isn't gonna drive up attendance. Watch, when the attendance reports come out next year our attendance will be up thanks to Maxx Force.
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Postby Jodon on May 23rd, 2019, 8:06 pm
If these numbers are to be believed, the chain added 5 parks and attendance went up 1.5 million visitors. That's...not great.
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Postby Sven18 on May 24th, 2019, 11:48 am
Jodon wrote:If these numbers are to be believed, the chain added 5 parks and attendance went up 1.5 million visitors. That's...not great.


The across the chain numbers are 100% accurate as they are pulled from the annual reports. The individual park numbers are guesses as non of the major parks release ones by park. Take TEA numbers with a huge grain of salt. The estimated Knotts at 4.1M, while Cedar Fair stated on their Q4 2018, and Q1 2019 conf calls that Knotts did over 6M.

The 2018 increase from 30.4M to 32..02.....1.6M is really bad. The year before it went from 30.1M to 30.4M, while adding the Concord water park. The numbers the last 2 years are part of the basis of the lack of organic growth analysts keep asking Reid Anderson about. Something that makes him very testy, especially when nobody is buying his spin and has led to big stock price hits after earnings reports, despite record numbers on the financials.

In FY 2017 attendance was up just 300K when adding Concord, which SF claimed had records & did really well. This small increase overall given the new park means the core parks were essentially flat.

In FY 2018 attendance was up just 1.6M when adding 5 parks. The attendance of those parks 5 parks annually are over 1.6M. That means the core parks were actually down
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Postby Sven18 on May 24th, 2019, 11:53 am
JackGlass wrote:2018 Theme park attendance.

If these numbers are accurate. Six Flags lacked organic growth at their 3 largest parks.

Great America was flat despite being open until the end of December

Great Adventure was flat

Magic Mountain increased by 2.6% even though it now operates all year


https://www.aecom.com/content/wp-conten ... 2018-2.pdf


Don't put too much faith in these numbers. They way off on Knotts. CF stated KB did over 6M, the report claimed 4.1M. means the estimate is off by 1.9M , 32% Even if you add the 400K they estimated for Soak City and CF was including Soak City in the 6M, the report estimate is still off by by 1.5M , 25%
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on May 24th, 2019, 1:36 pm
So either TEA report is off OR Cedar Fair is overstating their numbers!

BTW, at some point can we expect to see market saturation? By this I mean, the attendance will be "maxed out" for some or all parks? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.
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Postby Jodon on May 24th, 2019, 2:39 pm
CoasterRiderSC wrote:So either TEA report is off OR Cedar Fair is overstating their numbers!

BTW, at some point can we expect to see market saturation? By this I mean, the attendance will be "maxed out" for some or all parks? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.


I'm fairly confident we have already reached market saturation at SFGAm, SFGAd, and SFMM, which is why the attendance numbers look the way they do. It is also the reason that SF corporate has really started to push memberships so they can continue to increase revenue while attendance is flat.

To me, the next 5 years will be interesting to see how viable the current SF corporate strategy will be. Will Gold Season pass holders make the switch to higher profit memberships? Will season passes and memberships be constant or will they start to drop?

I believe that the park is becoming stale, and I wouldn't be surprised if others begin to feel the same way. I get frustrated with the ways that SFGAm cuts corners on staffing, upkeep, and lack of urgency on new rides. Pretty soon (or already), guests are going to feel taken advantage of and look to spend their recreation monies elsewhere. Unfortunately for us, there is going to have to be a mass exodus of guests, season passes, and memberships for Corporate to alter their current strategy.
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Postby Sven18 on May 24th, 2019, 3:20 pm
CoasterRiderSC wrote:So either TEA report is off OR Cedar Fair is overstating their numbers!

BTW, at some point can we expect to see market saturation? By this I mean, the attendance will be "maxed out" for some or all parks? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.


Cedar Fair has no reason to over state Knott's numbers, They don't even usually give hints to individual park numbers. Park execs have scoffed at the TEA numbers for years as being way off.

SF hit their max point of cheap season passes already.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on May 24th, 2019, 3:37 pm
Sven18 wrote:
CoasterRiderSC wrote:So either TEA report is off OR Cedar Fair is overstating their numbers!

BTW, at some point can we expect to see market saturation? By this I mean, the attendance will be "maxed out" for some or all parks? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.


Cedar Fair has no reason to over state Knott's numbers, They don't even usually give hints to individual park numbers. Park execs have scoffed at the TEA numbers for years as being way off.

SF hit their max point of cheap season passes already.


Sven - I was asking about max total attendance for a year for a park.
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Postby Sven18 on May 24th, 2019, 3:58 pm
Jodon wrote:
CoasterRiderSC wrote:So either TEA report is off OR Cedar Fair is overstating their numbers!

BTW, at some point can we expect to see market saturation? By this I mean, the attendance will be "maxed out" for some or all parks? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.


I'm fairly confident we have already reached market saturation at SFGAm, SFGAd, and SFMM, which is why the attendance numbers look the way they do. It is also the reason that SF corporate has really started to push memberships so they can continue to increase revenue while attendance is flat.

To me, the next 5 years will be interesting to see how viable the current SF corporate strategy will be. Will Gold Season pass holders make the switch to higher profit memberships? Will season passes and memberships be constant or will they start to drop?

I believe that the park is becoming stale, and I wouldn't be surprised if others begin to feel the same way. I get frustrated with the ways that SFGAm cuts corners on staffing, upkeep, and lack of urgency on new rides. Pretty soon (or already), guests are going to feel taken advantage of and look to spend their recreation monies elsewhere. Unfortunately for us, there is going to have to be a mass exodus of guests, season passes, and memberships for Corporate to alter their current strategy.


According to the initial reports from SF people are switching over at a good rate in the fall & preseason. They even stated the higher level of memberships are selling better than expected. They seem to have changed the deal to entice more memberships. SF is running the deal now that Gold plus membership gets a lifetime upgrade to Platinum. Gold plus essentially was the old Gold pass at about $20 more ,as they stripped the gold pass down a bit. But, offering Platinum benefits for Gold Plus price makes the membership much more appealing to a person wavering on switching from a Gold Pass to a membership.

On the feeling stale notion. I went to the park once last year and that was in the fall to process for the next season. I went however visited 4 other SF parks for 11 days and visited 9 parks between Cedar Fair, SEAS, & independents. This year I'm not planning to visit till Maxx Force opens, then probably once a month thru labor day when I'm back in town. I'll be in and out all summer with 3 coaster trips planned, 1 week long in June, 2 weeks in July and 2 weeks in August.

I think it's going to take a lot of hellish stuff and bad customer service for people to feel taken advantage of. Many people have rather low expectations as they might not be patrons of other chains that do things better. They also largely except the lower prices come with a trade off. SFGAm has pretty much a captive market, not any real competition close by.
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Postby JackGlass on May 25th, 2019, 8:02 am
Six Flags constantly reinvents itself with every new CEO it seems. Where as chains like Cedar Fair, Disney and Universal remain, for the most part, consistent even when CEO's are replaced.

When Pitman was CEO, Six Flags was very well run and had a healthy balance between upkeep and new attractions

When Burke was CEO, Six Flags was purchasing all sorts of record breaking roller coasters and new parks while infrastructure and customer service collapsed

When Shapiro was CEO, They stopped adding large coasters and focused on family attractions, while customer service and infrastructure were improved

When Jim Reid Anderson became CEO, They began adding a new ride in every park every year, Capital expenditures were cut and customer service and infastructure began to decline again

What will the next CEO do? God only knows. Will Six Flags remain the Walmart of Amusement parks? Or will the next CEO change course yet again
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Postby Sven18 on May 25th, 2019, 10:54 am
JackGlass wrote:What will the next CEO do? God only knows. Will Six Flags remain the Walmart of Amusement parks? Or will the next CEO change course yet again


SF on the Q1 conf call talked about this a little. Reid Anderson said a search firm is already been hired to evaluate internal and external candidates. He talked about the "5 key initiatives" for growth and how they have legs for years. JRA mentioned several times that he's one of the largest share holders, so not stated explicitly, but inferred that he will have a big say. Last time I looked it up JRA had 230M worth of shares. I think given the Board and the success they have had with JRA, someone that will continue to execute the laid out 5 initiatives is what they will go with. They are banking on the membership push to be the massive revenue driver that the season pass push was coming out of bankruptcy. Don't expect anyone that's going to rock the boat and start raising Capex above 9%.
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Postby Sven18 on May 25th, 2019, 11:17 am
Six Flags B. Riley Investor Conference Presentation/Talk

Some interesting blurbs

Attendance, passes, memberships
-63% of attendance is from passes or members
-active pass/members base is 8M
-just over 2M members which buy 1M dining passes
-avg membership sale is pricing at 30% over the season pass

This means of the 32M attendance, about 20.16M were pass/members and they visited on avg 2.5 times. With the avg visitation at just 2.5 that makes even low cost passes very lucrative. The 50% season dining buy rate reiterates the desire for the membership push. They didn't mention it in this talk but in the past SF stated dining pass penetration was in the low to mid 20% overall. If we say it's 25% of the overall base of 8M that means 2M dining passes overall, which 1M are bought by members. The membership people are absolute cash cows.

Acquisition, expansion

SF is talking to "a lot of partners". They are either "run by municipalities poorly", that's SF words(ie..the Rockford water park deal) or "mom & pop" parks, SF words. On the "mom & pop" parks SF states their valuations are often too high b/c of personal attachment. But, "we can wait them out" after they experience 2 or 3 poor season & they can be acquired at "good price". We " think many of these will utinately get over the finish line" and that they are expecting possibly 1 or 2 per year. SF stated no interest in going out of the area they are good at. They cited not being like SF in the past that got involved in many thing not in the theme park, water park area.

- So expect more of the deals like Concord WP, the EPR operating leases, and the Rockford WP lease.
- I guess to get an idea on possible targets have to look at small parks near exiting parks as SF wants to talked of leveraging existing parks like the Concord & Rockford water park deals.
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Postby staticshadows on May 25th, 2019, 12:13 pm
^ The part about what Six Flags will do during a recession was interesting but not surprising. Drop CapEx below 9%, cancel the 2-3 coaster projects for that year and replace them with less expensive marketable additions.

I think Deep River Waterpark in Crown Point, IN would be another good acquisition. It's owned by the county park district.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on May 26th, 2019, 1:59 am
If every Six Flags park, was Six Flags Great America, Great Adventure, or Magic Mountain, than I would said Six Flags; go and buy a lot more parks. Instead, you have Six Flag's big parks, and than you have Six Flags parks that not many people care to visit because they don't have enough great rides.

It wouldn't surprise me if they go for Indiana Beach (with their strategy though).
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Postby ernstwhere on May 26th, 2019, 4:11 pm
[quote="Sven18"]Six Flags B. Riley Investor Conference Presentation/Talk

Some interesting blurbs

Attendance, passes, memberships
-63% of attendance is from passes or members
-active pass/members base is 8M
-just over 2M members which buy 1M dining passes
-avg membership sale is pricing at 30% over the season pass

This means of the 32M attendance, about 20.16M were pass/members and they visited on avg 2.5 times. With the avg visitation at just 2.5 that makes even low cost passes very lucrative. The 50% season dining buy rate reiterates the desire for the membership push. They didn't mention it in this talk but in the past SF stated dining pass penetration was in the low to mid 20% overall. If we say it's 25% of the overall base of 8M that means 2M dining passes overall, which 1M are bought by members. The membership people are absolute cash cows.
[b]

Sven, This seems to confirm that SF is not interested in organic growth. But I think you also mentioned SF stocks took a hit over this criticism?. Thoughts?
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Postby Sven18 on May 26th, 2019, 6:11 pm
ernstwhere wrote:
Sven, This seems to confirm that SF is not interested in organic growth. But I think you also mentioned SF stocks took a hit over this criticism?. Thoughts?


I would say it's more of a case that organic attendance growth is not possible on a large scale, than them not being interested in it. The organic attendance growth post bankruptcy was never sustainable. There are only so many people you can entice with low cost passes. SF has basically reached the end on that. Phase 1 of post bankruptcy was get people to the parks with cheap passes. Phase 2 is get more money from them with memberships and dining passes. If SF can hold attendance, but raise per caps they will be rewarded by Wall Street. The things is year over year comparison on attendance,revenue,EBIDTA are not easily comparable when they keep adding operating leases each year. This could be cleared up easily if SF just made clear statements on how much the 5 new parks last year contributed to the numbers, without giving any one parks specific numbers.

FY 2019 could be very telling. Assuming no new operating leases come on this year, there would be a direct comparison to FY 2018 possible. If the early numbers on memberships hold, even with stagnant attendance, revenue & EBIDTA will grow substantially. SF stock will rise a lot if that happens. This is predicated on the fact the avg membership is a 30% price premium over a pass and they buy dining passes at 50% rate compared to rates in the 20's for pass holders. The potential nightmare for SF would be the most ardent people already switched to memberships and the conversion rate drops off. The fact SF changed the deal to free upgrade to lifetime platinum member for gold plus membership purchase might be a sign of some market resistance and thus needing to make things more appealing.
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Postby JackGlass on May 27th, 2019, 5:36 am
Over time, it seems like the best way to raise revenue would be to eliminate the regular and gold season passes and transition to a tiered season pass/membership like SeaWorld has.

Sea Worlds season passes are similar to the 4 tiered Six Flags memberships. Only they give you the option to buy them outright or pay on a monthly basis.

https://seaworld.com/san-diego/annual-pass/
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Postby Sven18 on May 28th, 2019, 9:51 am
JackGlass wrote:Over time, it seems like the best way to raise revenue would be to eliminate the regular and gold season passes and transition to a tiered season pass/membership like SeaWorld has.

Sea Worlds season passes are similar to the 4 tiered Six Flags memberships. Only they give you the option to buy them outright or pay on a monthly basis.

https://seaworld.com/san-diego/annual-pass/


I think SF's current structure is better designed & marketed. My one pet peeve with SF has always been them not charging extra for access to all their parks. They are the only chain that doesn't. With the new promo ,SF are making it make sense for many to upgrade to a membership over a gold pass. Current prices have Gold Pass for(less than 3) $90, a Gold Plus Membership(less than 3) $101 with a free lifetime upgrade to platinum. The drink bottle and extra discounts will entice most for $11 more. Also,the pass is $90 charge now, while the membership is the 1st month plus the $20 deposit or $1/extra poor month. The lower initial out lay entices people.

in my opinion, SEAS Chain passes/memberships are poorly marketed, designed and named. They have no continuity, Busch Gardens parks are naming things basic, unlimited, premier & Sea World is calling things bronze,silver, gold. But, then both call the pass that gets you into all 11 parks platinum, A platinum is $243 at some parks & $361 at others. They all get you into the same 11 parks so it's a little shady to have such a wide variance in price points. This a product only for people that are going to many parks, there shouldn't be $118 variance. SF has a $2/mth or $24/yr variance. Cedar Fair platinum is one price, the Wonderland passes are cheaper just based on conversion rate. Don't know if Cedar Fair makes sure you have a Canadian address to buy it, it's about a $57 difference with the conversion rate.
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Postby ernstwhere on May 28th, 2019, 12:59 pm
Sven18 wrote:
ernstwhere wrote:
Sven, This seems to confirm that SF is not interested in organic growth. But I think you also mentioned SF stocks took a hit over this criticism?. Thoughts?


I would say it's more of a case that organic attendance growth is not possible on a large scale, than them not being interested in it. The organic attendance growth post bankruptcy was never sustainable. There are only so many people you can entice with low cost passes. SF has basically reached the end on that. Phase 1 of post bankruptcy was get people to the parks with cheap passes. Phase 2 is get more money from them with memberships and dining passes. If SF can hold attendance, but raise per caps they will be rewarded by Wall Street. The things is year over year comparison on attendance,revenue,EBIDTA are not easily comparable when they keep adding operating leases each year. This could be cleared up easily if SF just made clear statements on how much the 5 new parks last year contributed to the numbers, without giving any one parks specific numbers.

FY 2019 could be very telling. Assuming no new operating leases come on this year, there would be a direct comparison to FY 2018 possible. If the early numbers on memberships hold, even with stagnant attendance, revenue & EBIDTA will grow substantially. SF stock will rise a lot if that happens. This is predicated on the fact the avg membership is a 30% price premium over a pass and they buy dining passes at 50% rate compared to rates in the 20's for pass holders. The potential nightmare for SF would be the most ardent people already switched to memberships and the conversion rate drops off. The fact SF changed the deal to free upgrade to lifetime platinum member for gold plus membership purchase might be a sign of some market resistance and thus needing to make things more appealing.



Thank you Sven. I understand much more now the post-bankruptcy strategy regarding passes and memberships. But I wonder, now that a customer base has been established and revenue from it is more or less secured, does that translate to SF's quality of service, park maintenance. The appearance is they are not priorities. And thanks for all your enlightening posts here, I very much appreciate them.
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Postby Sven18 on May 29th, 2019, 9:40 am
ernstwhere wrote:
But I wonder, now that a customer base has been established and revenue from it is more or less secured, does that translate to SF's quality of service, park maintenance. The appearance is they are not priorities.


I don't think SF will change wither quality of service or park maintenance in positive away. They will likely hold their current stance. SF often talks about how well they are doing on customer satisfaction surveys. I think most people have "baked in the cake" and are satisfied with the current service level. They don't expect a Disney or Busch Gardens level of service.

One of the things all parks are dealing with which might effect service is increased labor costs. SF is already not great on staffing food service, ride ops,etc.. They might even try to run even more bare bones staffing. There are already many times they need more people at snack & food stations. The person is trying to get the snack foods and also do drink refills. The station is clearly designed to operate with 2 people. The labor issue, which will raise operating costs &effect the EBIDTA & net income, could be exacerbated by the many states phasing in minimum wage increases. SF essentially cut the operating hours of all their parks this year, thus is likely a consequence of increased labor costs. Closing SFGam at 9pm instead of 10pm, saves a not insignificant amount of money over the prime season. The general trend for years has been having to pay more to lure people to these seasonal jobs. High school and college kids are not keen on these jobs as much as they were in the past. SF might start going down the road of more internationals like Cedar Fair or the upcoming Bowling Green Amusement & Leisure Industry Program at Cedar Point. Given their track record and my thoughts above, I would not bet on service improving
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on May 29th, 2019, 9:46 am
^ OR perhaps people who have retired and want to work there for the fun of it! I've joked more than once that when I retire (in about 20 years) I would like to work there!
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Postby JackGlass on June 1st, 2019, 3:45 am
Well.... Now that it's going to be legal in Illinois. I wonder if Great America will hop on board and sell over priced joints, one free per visit with your Diamond elite membership :lol:
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Postby Coaster Justin on June 1st, 2019, 11:31 am
JackGlass wrote:Six Flags constantly reinvents itself with every new CEO it seems. Where as chains like Cedar Fair, Disney and Universal remain, for the most part, consistent even when CEO's are replaced.

When Pitman was CEO, Six Flags was very well run and had a healthy balance between upkeep and new attractions


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