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Postby Sven18 on February 7th, 2019, 2:29 pm
JackGlass wrote:You're 100% right! If Six Flags didn't add those new parks, they would be down!

Six Flags hasn't built a truly marketable attraction since 2006, when they built El Toro and Tatsu. Where as cedar Fair has continued to build them every single year! Cedar fair wins hands down when it comes to their long term growth strategy! Because it's real growth, not just aquiring park after park to give the illusion of growth!


To many its been since 2006 before 2019 with MaxForce & West Coast Racer, but to SF's base customer and corporate the clones like JL's and 4D's the last 4 years have been highly marketable. The RMC's were/are arguably very marketable, especially NTG being the 1st and TC being the only dueling. RMC is probably the most desired manufacture right now, as people are clamoring for their park to get a RMC. SF can keep riding RMC. They can potentially RMC Predator at DL for the best conversion option. They can also buy more Raptors, which RMC said they have interest from parks to make bigger & faster ones. A 150 or 175 ft Raptor would be very marketable and cost more, but even a less expensive clone of the 110ft would be extremely marketable at a park like SFSTl

What strategy the chains have taken is based on their customer base and where they see the chain going. in my opinion, only CF has changed focus by pure choice and not necessity. Cedar Fair, Six Flags, Sea World Ent are all in the middle or starting new long term strategies. CF continues to move towards resorts/hotels and is trying to improve their theming. They want to keep satisfying the enthusiasts but keep making statements on more family stuff, especially related to CP. SF is trying to raise per caps via the memberships while not increasing Capex, with more parks to "feed". SF realized they had to change and raise per caps b/c they had maxed out on the cheap pass patrons. SEAS is moving towards more rides from their animal exhibits after the Blackfish stuff nearly drove them under. They only really survived b/c of the Busch Garden parks.
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Postby Sven18 on February 12th, 2019, 12:11 pm
SF officially announced the rebranding of 3 of the parks in the EPR operating lease deal last year.
1)Darien Lake will be Six Flags Darien Lake
2)Wet & Wild Splashtown rebranded to Six Flags Hurricane Harbor Splashtown
3)Wet & Wild Phoenix rebranded to Six Flags Hurricane Harbor Phoenix

"“We are proud to have these incredible parks bear the Six Flags name and we are making major investments in all three properties with record-breaking attractions and extensive upgrades including new theming, paint treatments and branded signage, along with updates to restaurant and retail locations. "

Also, Six Flags Great Escape Resort outdoor waterpark will be rebranded to Hurricane Harbor
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Postby Eagle04 on February 13th, 2019, 10:13 am
Has there ever been a publicly shared percentage breakdown on daily guests, ie single day tickets, low usage passes(3-6 times a year), moderate users(7-15 visits), and heavy users (16+)?

I like doing regular trips to the park but unless people are spending money in the park, at some point it becomes unnecessary bodies clogging the various lines throughout the park. Empty pocketed bodies clogging lines reduce the park experience for those who would come and spend money.

I think a capped mult visit pass(10-12 visits a year, or so) at current prices, followed by a significant increase in season passes would be in the parks best interest.
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Postby Sven18 on February 13th, 2019, 11:59 am
Eagle04 wrote:Has there ever been a publicly shared percentage breakdown on daily guests, ie single day tickets, low usage passes(3-6 times a year), moderate users(7-15 visits), and heavy users (16+)?

I like doing regular trips to the park but unless people are spending money in the park, at some point it becomes unnecessary bodies clogging the various lines throughout the park. Empty pocketed bodies clogging lines reduce the park experience for those who would come and spend money.

I think a capped mult visit pass(10-12 visits a year, or so) at current prices, followed by a significant increase in season passes would be in the parks best interest.


They don't give specifics like that. SF mentioned the average pass holder visited 3 to 4 times on their full year conf call last year.
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Postby Sven18 on February 14th, 2019, 10:39 am
Q4/Full Year results conf call

Full Year Highlights:
Revenue 1.5B - increase 105M/8% Q4-270M increase 13M/5%
Attendance 32M increase 1.6M or 5% Q4-6.3M
Adjusted EBIDTA 554M - increase 34M/7% Q4-95M increase 8M
Net Income 275M - increase 2M Q4-79M decrease 19M
Capex 133M
Stock Buy back 111M (approval for 232M more)
Per cap spending 42.58 increase 0.97
Per cap admission 25.30 increase 0.93
In park spend per cap 17.28 increase 0.04
Total Debt 2.107B increase 86M
Deferred revenue 146M increase 4M

Pretty much increases driven by the 5 new parks(attendance) & higher price points on memberships as some have converted to memberships, Season pass/members are 63% of attendance. 8M combined pass holders/members(2M+ members not specific number)

SF missed on their Modified EBIDTA 600M goal(594M) & are saying its very unlikely to meet the 2020 750M goal, essentially pushing that to 2021.

On the conf call the several of international parks are getting delayed. Dubai is up in the air if it will be completed & as announced last month officially delayed. Haiyan parks delayed 1 yr to 2020, Chongqing delayed 1 yr till 2021, Nanjing delayed 1 yr till 2022. Citing China economic slow down, government in the provinces, etc..
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Postby JackGlass on February 14th, 2019, 11:16 am
Is all that debt from stock buybacks? What is the purpose of those buybacks? Are they trying to artificially inflate the price of their stocks?

I remember when they emerged from bankruptcy, they had just over $1 Billion in debt.... and it's already back up to over $2 Billion now.
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Postby Sven18 on February 14th, 2019, 11:37 am
JackGlass wrote:Is all that debt from stock buybacks? What is the purpose of those buybacks? Are they trying to artificially inflate the price of their stocks?

I remember when they emerged from bankruptcy, they had just over $1 Billion in debt.... and it's already back up to over $2 Billion now.


SF added 500M to debt in 2017 which jumped debt from just just over 1.5B to 2 over 2B. They also did a major buy back taking on debt in 2012 that added about 300M in 1 yr. They plan to return all excess cash to shareholders via buybacks & will take on debt for more when they feel it's prudent. They like to buyback when they view that it's undervalued. Considering Reid-Anderson spent 2 mins saying the stock was undervalued I'm surprised they didn't buyback more since they had board approval for 232M since last year & the stick tanked 15% after Q3 earnings. The street also is not to keen on Q4. The lack of domestic organic growth is still evident. Analysts aren't buying the Anderson line he tried in Q3 also that core parks aren't down when attendance is up just 1.6M when you add 5 parks. Also, the international parks are being delayed. Stock down 11% today at the moment. Buying opportunity for SF?
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Postby staticshadows on February 14th, 2019, 1:49 pm
Sven18 wrote:
JackGlass wrote:Is all that debt from stock buybacks? What is the purpose of those buybacks? Are they trying to artificially inflate the price of their stocks?

I remember when they emerged from bankruptcy, they had just over $1 Billion in debt.... and it's already back up to over $2 Billion now.


SF added 500M to debt in 2017 which jumped debt from just just over 1.5B to 2 over 2B. They also did a major buy back taking on debt in 2012 that added about 300M in 1 yr. They plan to return all excess cash to shareholders via buybacks & will take on debt for more when they feel it's prudent. They like to buyback when they view that it's undervalued. Considering Reid-Anderson spent 2 mins saying the stock was undervalued I'm surprised they didn't buyback more since they had board approval for 232M since last year & the stick tanked 15% after Q3 earnings. The street also is not to keen on Q4. The lack of domestic organic growth is still evident. Analysts aren't buying the Anderson line he tried in Q3 also that core parks aren't down when attendance is up just 1.6M when you add 5 parks. Also, the international parks are being delayed. Stock down 11% today at the moment. Buying opportunity for SF?


You would think the domestic growth slowdown would be priced into the stock by now. I think the drop in stock price today has more to do with the surprise that the parks in China are being delayed. Six Flags gave projected openings they seemed confident in on the last call and then changed the projected opening dates on this one.
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Postby Sven18 on February 14th, 2019, 2:19 pm
staticshadows wrote:
Sven18 wrote:
JackGlass wrote:Is all that debt from stock buybacks? What is the purpose of those buybacks? Are they trying to artificially inflate the price of their stocks?

I remember when they emerged from bankruptcy, they had just over $1 Billion in debt.... and it's already back up to over $2 Billion now.


SF added 500M to debt in 2017 which jumped debt from just just over 1.5B to 2 over 2B. They also did a major buy back taking on debt in 2012 that added about 300M in 1 yr. They plan to return all excess cash to shareholders via buybacks & will take on debt for more when they feel it's prudent. They like to buyback when they view that it's undervalued. Considering Reid-Anderson spent 2 mins saying the stock was undervalued I'm surprised they didn't buyback more since they had board approval for 232M since last year & the stick tanked 15% after Q3 earnings. The street also is not to keen on Q4. The lack of domestic organic growth is still evident. Analysts aren't buying the Anderson line he tried in Q3 also that core parks aren't down when attendance is up just 1.6M when you add 5 parks. Also, the international parks are being delayed. Stock down 11% today at the moment. Buying opportunity for SF?


You would think the domestic growth slowdown would be priced into the stock by now. I think the drop in stock price today has more to do with the surprise that the parks in China are being delayed. Six Flags gave projected openings they seemed confident in on the last call and then changed the projected opening dates on this one.


After Q3 which SF reported records in most of the same metrics the stock dropped 15%. They are now down about 14% today. Though the china projects are delayed, SF is still getting paid just the time frame is different. spread out over 1 more year pre opening. SF claimed 15M reduction in revenue b/c of China delays in Q4. The lack of organic growth is the bigger concern over China in my opinion. The headlines are blaming China but the fact is 1.6M attendance growth, adding 5 parks on the ledger June 1 till end of the year. They had these parks in the fold the main season. Darien lake & Frontier City both should have added 1M alone, yet the chain was up 1.6M total. SF keeps trying to spin the core/legacy parks aren't down, but the numbers tell another story.

Update: Reid Anderson is making the rounds on CNBC & other networks saying stock undervalued, nobody is buying it the stock down big for the day.
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Postby JackGlass on February 14th, 2019, 5:08 pm
People just aren't excited about super loops these days! :lol:
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Postby Ilovthevu' on February 14th, 2019, 5:54 pm
Six Flags is too expensive if you are not a season pass holder or have a membership / dining pass. Look at the prices for 1 day admission. No wonder, they are getting way less attendance. On the other hand, every county or state fair (Wisconsin) I went to in 2018 was MOBBED! The parking price is also absurd if you are not a holder or a member. So, people that want to go one day to Six Flags, are probably going to forget it.

For Magic Mountain, in the (OFF-SEASON), the price is as low (HA HA) as $60 for 1 day admission. The price at the park is $90! It wouldn't shock me if parking is $30. That food is not cheap either / with no dining pass. I feel that they shouldn't force people's hand to have to get a season pass / membership in order to visit 1 day.

When people go to the Brookfield Zoo, Science Museum, Field Museum, etc, they don't have to buy the season pass, or they feel like it's way too much money to even visit once. For instance, 1 visit to the Field Museum is about $25, and the membership is $95. The way Six Flags is doing it, 1 visit to the Field Museum would be $85, and to be a member would be $95. To me, Six Flags is worth about $40 a day, and parks like Darien Lake / Frontier City / Six Flags America should be way cheaper than that.

And someone is going to say Disney / Universal is around $100 or over. Florida is a rip-off in concerns to amusement / theme parks all over the state. They can get away with it, and part of the reason is because of the warm temperatures all year. Even places like Busch Gardens & Sea World are really expensive for what they have.
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Postby JackGlass on February 14th, 2019, 7:12 pm
in my opinion, Six Flags really needs to ditch this "Every park, get's something new every year" Strategy.

That strategy is really handcuffing their ability to add higher quality rides to their parks.
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Postby Sven18 on February 14th, 2019, 7:33 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:Six Flags is too expensive if you are not a season pass holder or have a membership / dining pass. Look at the prices for 1 day admission. No wonder, they are getting way less attendance. On the other hand, every county or state fair (Wisconsin) I went to in 2018 was MOBBED! The parking price is also absurd if you are not a holder or a member. So, people that want to go one day to Six Flags, are probably going to forget it.


Hardly anyone is paying the actual gate price. A huge % of 37% of attendance that aren't members/passes are bring a friend free, 9.99, 14.99, etc... Not to mention the many places to get discounts all season which have discounts that are like 40 or 50% of the gate price. The gate price is like the pass prices, there is always a major discount that makes the full price moot.

Ilovthevu' wrote:For Magic Mountain, in the (OFF-SEASON), the price is as low (HA HA) as $60 for 1 day admission. The price at the park is $90! It wouldn't shock me if parking is $30. That food is not cheap either / with no dining pass. I feel that they shouldn't force people's hand to have to get a season pass / membership in order to visit 1 day.

It's not force, they just make it not to make sense to not buy a pass. Food at all theme park is overpriced just like sports events, concerts, etc...
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Postby Sven18 on February 14th, 2019, 7:48 pm
JackGlass wrote:in my opinion, Six Flags really needs to ditch this "Every park, get's something new every year" Strategy.

That strategy is really handcuffing their ability to add higher quality rides to their parks.


Agree, but SF went from bankruptcy to record revenue, EBIDTA,etc.. for 9 years in a row based on low cost rides & they were fortunate to bet on the RMC conversion technology being successful. They see no reason to change & according to the 2018 report more people are buying the high end memberships than they expected. Those memberships offer "benefits " that literally cost SF nothing or very little. Benefits are discounts on grossly overpriced stuff, so you spend more to save in theory on stuff you might not buy otherwise. Thus, the margins are huge with the high end memberships & memberships in general and have produced an increase in per caps in 2018, something SF has struggled to do consistently
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Postby JackGlass on February 15th, 2019, 10:27 pm
Looks like both Illinois and New Jersey have passed $15 an hour minimum wage bills.

If Six Flags chooses to pass these costs onto customers, instead of absorbing them, I wonder how much a season pass will jump? Great America and Great Adventure are two of their largest parks, so this will be interesting to see what happens over the next several years as the increases are phased in.
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Postby Sven18 on February 16th, 2019, 9:34 am
JackGlass wrote:Looks like both Illinois and New Jersey have passed $15 an hour minimum wage bills.

If Six Flags chooses to pass these costs onto customers, instead of absorbing them, I wonder how much a season pass will jump? Great America and Great Adventure are two of their largest parks, so this will be interesting to see what happens over the next several years as the increases are phased in.


SF knew this was coming & thus the preemptive hour cuts, in my opinion. They seem to have offset increased hourly wage by cutting hours of operation. SFGAm closes 1 hour earlier during the main summer season during weekdays. GAdv 30 minutes earlier to 930pm. I also would bet they will be even more likely to close early on slow days b/c of weather, something they already do. The cutting of operational hours is across the chain, SFNE, OG, etc... no park seems to be staying open till 10pm on weekdays in the summer when a bunch used to. Some always had early close like SFMM,SFDK, Escape
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Postby staticshadows on March 7th, 2019, 6:43 pm
Jim Reid-Anderson intends to retire by the end of February 2020.

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/ ... ndex=10000
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Postby Coaster Justin on March 8th, 2019, 2:58 am
They can hire me. I'm kinda qualified ( viewtopic.php?f=2&t=15075&p=237011&hilit=northwest+express#p237011 ) and We have the same Initials
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Postby JackGlass on March 8th, 2019, 6:20 am
I hope the next CEO focuses on Organic growth and higher quality rides.

Great America still has a decent chunk of land in the back of the park. All I can say is, use it wisely. Because once that land is developed, it's going to be very difficult to add new attractions without costly land purchases or being forced to remove popular existing attractions.
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Postby JackGlass on March 9th, 2019, 10:33 am
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/ ... ad4ljNRUPw

Not to double post. But they're looking for a New CEO
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Postby staticshadows on March 9th, 2019, 2:01 pm
JackGlass wrote:https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2019/03/08/six-flags-on-the-hunt-for-new-ceo.html?fbclid=IwAR1GRIEvihkydzcD3c-_-TH1BMMzaUr7RKvNoXCLoTvou4lfXad4ljNRUPw

Not to double post. But they're looking for a New CEO

I guess you didn't read the SEC filing posted above. :lol:
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Postby JackGlass on March 9th, 2019, 3:08 pm
staticshadows wrote:
JackGlass wrote:https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2019/03/08/six-flags-on-the-hunt-for-new-ceo.html?fbclid=IwAR1GRIEvihkydzcD3c-_-TH1BMMzaUr7RKvNoXCLoTvou4lfXad4ljNRUPw

Not to double post. But they're looking for a New CEO

I guess you didn't read the SEC filing posted above. :lol:


To be honest.... I didn't :lol: Marcus Leshock posted this article today on his facebook page.

I'm glad they're considering an outsider and not just an insider. I personally feel the post bankruptcy strategy has run it's course and Six Flags needs to focus on orgainc growth at the parks they currently own/operate.

Beautifying parks, Adding higher quality rides and getting prices and per caps up. I know he retired from Cedar Fair, but someone like Matt Ouimet would do an awesome job, in my opinion.
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Postby Sven18 on March 9th, 2019, 8:06 pm
JackGlass wrote:
staticshadows wrote:
JackGlass wrote:https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2019/03/08/six-flags-on-the-hunt-for-new-ceo.html?fbclid=IwAR1GRIEvihkydzcD3c-_-TH1BMMzaUr7RKvNoXCLoTvou4lfXad4ljNRUPw

Not to double post. But they're looking for a New CEO

I guess you didn't read the SEC filing posted above. :lol:


I personally feel the post bankruptcy strategy has run it's course and Six Flags needs to focus on orgainc growth at the parks they currently own/operate.

Beautifying parks, Adding higher quality rides and getting prices and per caps up. I know he retired from Cedar Fair, but someone like Matt Ouimet would do an awesome job, in my opinion.


SF realized about 2-3 years ago the post bankruptcy plan of cheap passes and high attendance based on the low price point, had mostly run it's course. They realized that when the attendance growth started dropping from 3+M /yr to 1.6M to 300K, etc... SF knew they had to get more out of each attendee and thus the big push on season dining. Then, starting last year they went to the membership plan, which is a big price increase disguised. The lowest membership is essentially what a gold pass used to be, but at $20 more per year, along with a sneaky deposit system. The higher memberships are "benefit" that mostly cost SF nothing. The discounts based on your membership level are "benefit" by getting a discount on grossly overpriced goods, merchandise, etc... Honestly, I don;t think SF cares about organic growth too much, the stock analysts keep asking and SF keeps spinning it. SF only really cares about the top like number and Reid Anderson was perturbed on the post Q4 call interviews on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc... He kept citing record revenue, attendance, EBIDTA, etc. and claiming the stock was undervalued and shouldn't have fallen 15% on the report. But Wall Street was more concerned how they were getting the numbers and that it was not organic. Also, the global slow down fears may weigh on the foreign park deals. SF has some potential land mind ahead.
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Postby JackGlass on March 20th, 2019, 4:21 pm
John T Reilly is leaving Sea World Entertainment.

Wouldn't mind it at all if he became the next CEO of Six Flags.



https://www.orlandosentinel.com/busines ... story.html
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Postby n9yty on April 3rd, 2019, 3:00 pm
Eagle04 wrote:Has there ever been a publicly shared percentage breakdown on daily guests, ie single day tickets, low usage passes(3-6 times a year), moderate users(7-15 visits), and heavy users (16+)?

I like doing regular trips to the park but unless people are spending money in the park, at some point it becomes unnecessary bodies clogging the various lines throughout the park. Empty pocketed bodies clogging lines reduce the park experience for those who would come and spend money.

I think a capped mult visit pass(10-12 visits a year, or so) at current prices, followed by a significant increase in season passes would be in the parks best interest.

I'd be very upset if they did that... We live out Rockford way, it's 1.5hrs each way on HWY173 which isn't always pleasant driving with some of the other traffic sometimes... And yet it has become the summer thing to do with the "men" in the family, my three sons and I... But we do spend money well above and beyond, and bought the highest level membership becuase we know that we get a LOT for our dollar with all the visits we make. It has become how i use my vacation time for the year, going two to three times a week. I'd hate to see them move toward a limitation on the number of times you could come...
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