Six Flags Q1 Earnings
Revenue 103M decrease 26M(13M decrease in foreign nothing from China or Dubai)
Net Income loss of 85M increase of 15M
EBIDTA loss of 42M increase of 10M
Total Per Caps $56.60 increase $8.12/17%
Admit Per Caps $37.77 increase $7.28/24%
In Park Spend $18.83 increase 0.84
Attendance 1.6M decrease 584K/27%
Deferred Revenue 149M decrease 29M/16%
Operating Cost 106M decrease13M - reiterated 2020 deferring 20M in guest experience investments (part was increased staffing) & 10 to 20M more in non labor operating costs
Free Cash Negative 127M increase 11M
Capex 51M - 2020 Capex projected 90 to 100M reiterate 40 to 50M eliminated or deferred
Dividend 21M decrease 48M(suspended until further notice)
Liquidity 832M = 460 revolving credit line, 372 cash
----$5M spent on buying units at partnership parks SFOT/SFOG
----Active Pass Base (members + passes) 7M decrease 700K(Pass Base was 8M Q3 2019m then 7.7M Q4 end), Memberships 2.3M decrease 300K(14%) - claimed 1/2 was Covid, so still lost 150K in Q1 organically.
----Per caps were inflated by the fact this was the 1st Q1 SF could claim membership revenue since the Fall 2018 initial membership push. Inflated also by while claiming member revenue from all members Jan, Feb, March attendance was down significantly...SF estimates Covid cost 800K visits.
----SFOT has transitions to year round weekends
----SF was leveraged 4.3X before taking on net about 410M in Note debt b/c Covid 19. Total debt 2.7M+. Capital allocation strategy will be focused on paying down debt to return our net leverage ratio to between 3 times and 4 times adjusted EBITDA. Must have 150M liquidity under new debt covenants.
----Pre Covid: Attendance up 255K, single day paid admission 38%
----No Park is over 10% EBIDTA, pretty surprising since EBIDTA 2019 was 527M, nobody over 10% means everyone under 53M. Cedar Fair parks of Knotts & Cedar Point do 115 to 130M+ EBIDTA and KI does mid 60's & Wonderland is around 50. All of the top 3, possibly top 4 CF parks produce more than the best SF park.
--Almost 90% of attendance is drawn from within 150 miles
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Financials
SIX FLAGS Q2 EARNINGS: SF failed to meet even low expectations of 56M revenue & loss of 0.94 share
REVENUE................19M decrease 458M or 96% (decrease of 29M from international & sponsorships) NET INCOME............loss of 137M, loss increase of 216M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... loss 96M, decrease 276M DEFERRED REVENUE...182M decrease 53M(lower pass & membership sales) OPERATING COST...... 63M decrease 115M FREE CASH..............loss 139M increase of 229M CAPEX...................22M decrease 26M DEBT......................2.62B LIQUIDITY................756M=296 cash + 460M revolver ATTENDANCE............433K decrease 96% (1/2 of attendance from GAdv Safari) TOTAL PER CAPS........35.77 decrease 6.50 or 15% ADMISSION PER CAPS...25.32 increase 1.29 or 5%(increase mix day tickets & 24M membership revenue defer) IN PARK SPEND..........10.45 decrease 7.79 or 43% LEGAL RESERVES........increase 8M related to pending lawsuits ACTIVE PASS BASE....... members + passes 4.34M decrease 2.66M or 38%(7M end of Q1, 7.7M end Q4) MEMBERSHIPS ONLY......2.1M, decrease from 2.4M end of Q1 & 2.6M end Q4 2019 ---Capex for 2020 80 to 90M total...thru Q2 spent 73M(Q1 51M + Q2 22M) ---Considering modified format Frightfest & HITP ---emphasis on trying to increase single day tickets which started Q1 trials with pre covid increase of 38%
SIX FLAGS Q2 EARNINGS: SF far surpassed very low expectations with 0.81 share profit with expected loss.
The Earnings reports has many moving parts so there is no real quarterly comps to compare like usual, though SF tried. Problem with comps to 2020 is many parks were closed, problem with 2019 comps is again while more parks were open in 2021, some were not. There is also the added factor of SF announced in Q1 they are shifting their reporting calendar so Q2 now includes July 4th, which is big time period for attendance & revenue. There is also the factor of memberships & how partial pass revenue was claimed in 2020 for extended passes good thru 2021 end. All of these factors & more mean there will not be real direct comps quarterly to 2019 last normal year till 2023 Q1. REVENUE................460M NET INCOME............71M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... 170M DEFERRED REVENUE...310M OPERATING COST...... 184M FREE CASH..............190M CAPEX....................21M DEBT......................2.63B LIQUIDITY................714M=258 cash + 461M revolver ATTENDANCE............8.5M TOTAL PER CAPS........51.94 ADMISSION PER CAPS...28.68 IN PARK SPEND..........23.26 ACTIVE PASS BASE....... members + passes 6.3M MEMBERSHIPS ONLY......2.1M, decrease from 2.7M in 2019 PASSES ONLY...............4.2M, increase from 3.5M in 2019 Highlights: ---Reduction in members by 600K & increasing in passes by 700K, means potentially people are reverting back to passes & not seeing enough benefit to pay for the higher price point memberships. ---Capex thru Q1+Q2 totals 42M, SF on Q1 call said Capex would be around 90-95M for the year, now say it will be 130 to 140M, which is at Pre Covid levels. ---Per Caps were higher than what SF has seen almost ever. Admission per caps buoyed by influx in passes bought during Q2 more than normal & thus claiming revenue over shorter period. Normal big pass sale time is the fall sale, which wasn't the case last fall. SF also did some accounting changes in that part of membership payments are going to in park spend, which helped in park per caps. ---Labor costs are projected at about 40M increase for 2021, with wage increases & yet to be paid bonuses for staying on for full summer & even more for thru the fall ---SF strong attendance trends, but attendance overall hurt by lack of school groups they normally get ---looking for more cost savings with their modernization plan which they went into detail in during Q1 call ---they like the early results on cash to kiosk(lower cash handling costs), new CRM platform ---mobile dining will be rolling out more ---QR based phone Flash Pass trying to roll out more to reduce lines at redemption centers for physical FP ---trying to reduce discounting & use dynamic pricing for tickets
SIX FLAGS Q3 EARNINGS:
SF surpassed muted expectations 1.82 share profit Market not liking the results as stock was down as much as 10% on the report. Numbers are not a direct Comp to 2020(Covid) nor 2019(SF calendar shift) & also the partial claimed revenue on all season products extended. SF does reference 2019 however in their report with the disclaimer. REVENUE................638M Increase 117M NET INCOME............157M Decrease 23M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... 279M (11M litigation reserve class action payout) Decrease 28M DEFERRED REVENUE...224M Increase 26M OPERATING COST...... 228M Increase 38M FREE CASH..............137M CAPEX....................18M DEBT......................2.63B LIQUIDITY................851M=390 cash + 461M revolver ATTENDANCE............12M Decrease 2M(reduction in pre-booked groups) TOTAL PER CAPS........52.02 Increase 9.58/23% ADMISSION PER CAPS...28.70 Increase 3.53/14% IN PARK SPEND..........23.32 Increase 6.05/35% ACTIVE PASS BASE....... members + passes 7.6M increase from 7.4M in 2019 MEMBERSHIPS ONLY......2.2M, decrease from 2.9M in 2019 PASSES ONLY...............5.4M, increase from 4.5M in 2019 Highlights: ---Active Pass Base :Reduction in members by 700K & increasing in passes by 900K, continues the trend of people reverting back to passes &potentially not seeing enough benefit to pay for the higher price point memberships. Q2 the members reduction was 600K & pass increase 700K. So, it's increasing gradually. ---Capex thru Q3 totals 62M, total Capex 120M-130M so heavy Capex in Q4. ---Per Caps increase partially buoyed passes being bought later in the year than normal so revenue claimed over a shorter period. ---Labor costs increases of about 40M/yr, SF expects that to stay ---Attendance Down 2M & showed negative trend July 97%, Aug 89%, Sept 86% (percentages are of 2019 levels). SF attributes it to delta variant. ---Revenue: sponsorship & international down 14M for Q3 & 48M YTD, shows the effect of cancelled China deals. Q3 Admission Revenue down 7M while food/merch up 38M
SF Q4 & Full Year Results
SF surpassed muted expectations of a loss of o.9/share losing 0.2/share Numbers are not a direct Comp to 2020(Covid) nor 2019(SF calendar shift) & SF does reference 2019 however in their report with the disclaimer. Comparison below are to 2019 Full YEAR REVENUE................1.497B Increase 9M NET INCOME............130M Decrease 49M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... 498M Decrease 29M DEFERRED REVENUE...178M Increase 34M OPERATING COST...... 228M Increase 38M CAPEX....................122M Decrease 18M DEBT......................2.63B Increase 362M LIQUIDITY................797M=336 cash + 461M revolver ATTENDANCE............27.7 Decrease 5.1M---63% from members & pass holders TOTAL PER CAPS........52.40 Increase 4.03/24% ADMISSION PER CAPS...28.73 Increase 5.16/22% IN PARK SPEND..........23.32 Increase 4.87/26% INTEREST COST..........152M increase 39M ACTIVE PASS BASE....... members + passes 8.3M increase from 7.7 in 2019 MEMBERSHIPS ONLY......2.1M, decrease from 2.6M in 2019 PASSES ONLY...............6.2M, increase from 5.1M in 2019 Q4 Results REVENUE................317M Increase 56M NET INCOME............ Negative 2M from Negative 9M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... 95M Increase 23M OPERATING COST...... 143M Increase 18M CAPEX....................60M Increase 42M ATTENDANCE............5.8M Decrease 300K --66% from member/passes decrease from 71% TOTAL PER CAPS........53.00 Increase 12.78 ADMISSION PER CAPS...27.90 Increase 4.30 IN PARK SPEND..........25.10 Increase 8.48 ---Full YR 52M decrease in sponsorship & international revenue from China & Dubai deals ---Admission per caps helped by increased single day tickets Q&A Basoul goes thru his plan of 3 pillars 1)Reset Culture 2)Reduced layers of management 3)Reset Strategy- move to a premium product Highlights: --Emphasis on Improved Guest experience --Coasters will be added selectively, " ample thrill rides at the parks" --will sacrifice attendance loss for better experience & make it up on higher price points FULL CONFERENCE CALL TRANSCRIPT https://seekingalpha.com/article/449002 ... 18443.1326
Thank you for the update Sven18! This sounds great
SF Q4 & Full 2022 Results -
Q4 Results vs 2021 REVENUE................280M decrease 37M NET INCOME............ 13M increase 15M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... 99M increase 4M OPERATING COST...... 127M decrease 16M CAPEX....................38M decrease 22M ATTENDANCE............4.1M decrease 1.7M TOTAL PER CAPS........65.15 increase 12.14 ADMISSION PER CAPS...34.50 increase 6.60 IN PARK SPEND..........30.65 increase 5.55 INTEREST.................34M decrease 4M ---end of HITP at 6 parks was cause of a losd of just 279K of the 1.7M decreased attendance. Shows how poorly attended HITP was at these parks Full YEAR 2022 vs 2019(comp vs last Full YEAR as ops were normal in 2022) REVENUE................1.358B Decrease 129M NET INCOME............109M Decrease 70M ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... 465M Decrease 62M DEFERRED REVENUE...129M Decrease 15M OPERATING COST...... 592M Decrease 16M CAPEX....................112M Decrease 22M DEBT......................2.28B same LIQUIDITY................309M= 80 cash + 209M revolver ATTENDANCE............20.4M Decrease 12.4M TOTAL PER CAPS........63.93 Increase 20.66 ADMISSION PER CAPS...35.99 Increase 11.13 IN PARK SPEND..........27.84 Increase 10.33 INTEREST COST..........142M increase 28M PASS/MEMBER BASE : 5M - decrease of 3.3M from 2021 Q&A Statements Highlights: ---Capex 2023 projected 150M with 150M to 200M 2024/2025, 9 to 10% of revenue 2026 & after. 70% of Capex towards rides, attraction, & guess facing improvements. Very ambitious given 2022 revenue fell to 2017 levels. Also, to get to Capex of 10% of revenue with 200M Capex SF needs to get to to 2B revene a 640M increase in 3 yrs, seems pretty unreal given the current status with skeptical patrons on SF price to value. Selim seems sure the per cap increases aren't going to take a major hit for these goals to come to frution. ---Project record ADJ EBIDTA for 2023 which means over 520M Selim pushing they turned after Q4 was not as poor as feared from analyst perspective. ---Goal to get attendance 25 to 27M in 2 to 3 yrs, goal of 10% increase for 2023...so increase of 2M+ ---Price increases will get reeled back, admit they did too much. Likely staying at or near levels after the fall decreases to $150 for the top level pass, hinted sales will occur, like the free upgrade sale SFFT & SFOT had from Platinum to Diamond. ---new phone APP coming 2023 --- claimed SF will remove non accretive op days..ie..HITP example in Q4 & SFMM cutting weekdays from early calendar for 2023. Claimed longer days at parks to off set some lost days, don't see it from looking at prelim schedules. ie...SFMM doesn't start 8pm close till after SFGAM though CA schools are out earlier than IL. in my opinion. Selim is spinning, he's made clear he's cost cutting. He's reduced full time salaried staff, cut hours, etc...Op costs were down in 2022, CF & SEAS had increased costs as they paid up to staff & ran full schedules of op days & hours. ---Option to purchase all units from partners comes due in 2027 & 2028 at SFOT & SFOG. Stated most likely they will own the parks & thus would buyout the partners. They currently own 53% of SFOT & 33% of SFOG. ---Long term Selim wants to get SF in the hotel/resort business at parks ;
I agree with the hotels. They should buy some rundown hotels near the parks and upgrade them or rename them.
943 Coasters around the World! Countdown to 1000!
http://sfgamworld.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15272 Runner Up of the 2017 SFGAmWorld Elimination Thread
Seems to me the prior owner of our park had some hotels, eh??
Single Day Ride Count Record
50 rides 8/17/2018 (Without Flash Pass - Coasters After Dark) ---- "Here we go, kids!! Here we go!!"
Park run hotels only work if you have destination parks, where you need multiple days. SF really only has 2, GAdv & MM. GAdv does not have hotels near cause the city has opposed most development regarding hotels. SFMM there are plenty of hotels Hotels are a massive Capex. Selim made a lot of grand statements that are likely going to go as well as the stuff he spouted when he took over. The stuff didn't happen yet or he hypes tiny stuff as great & people don't actually view it as that great. He's acting like a used car salesmen that will say anything, he's under pressure from potential activist investors. Peers are producing records & SF is below 2019 levels by large amounts. The results under him are horrendous. He's had to capitulate on some stuff(premiumization), ride purchases, etc..Selim is what happens when you get an overly confident person running something he knows nothing about. Last edited by Sven18 on March 11th, 2023, 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I agree that a focus on hotels does not seem like the best direction. This may have been covered before, but what was Selim's background before SF CEO and what made him a desirable candidate for the SF board?
in my opinion, his tenure so far has been tumultuous at best and I continue to lack optimism about the near future of the chain at the moment.
Yes they only work for destination parks, Like: Legoland Florida Chessington World of Adventure Six Flags Great Escape Six Flags Darien Lake Worlds of Fun Dutch Wonderland Lake Compounce Adventureland Thorpe Park All of which have lodging onsite that get 2.2m guests or less and (While I haven't been to Legoland Florida and am guessing) are not parks you need multiple days. 943 Coasters around the World! Countdown to 1000!
http://sfgamworld.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15272 Runner Up of the 2017 SFGAmWorld Elimination Thread
How is our park NOT a destination park?? But lesser parks like Dollywood are "Destination parks" ?
Single Day Ride Count Record
50 rides 8/17/2018 (Without Flash Pass - Coasters After Dark) ---- "Here we go, kids!! Here we go!!"
You need you head checked if you think Dollywood is "lesser than" GAm. You SF Fanboys are hilarious.
First hotels(the topic) are not the same as campgrounds, which is literally half the list you posted. Campgroundss are cheap, a few million, a decent sized hotel(100 to 130 rooms) is 25 to 30M. Also, do not confound tourist areas, Legoland FL with the locations SF has. The only site that makes sense if GADv & the town have made it hard to develop, hence why no hotels near Gadv. SFMM cost of land is astronomical & plenty of hotels already there..
I've been to both parks. I spent almost 3 days at Dollywood. It's a very good park but NOT on the same level as ours! Not even close, bud! (Judd Nelson in The Breakfast Club) And as someone already pointed out Worlds of Fun has a hotel. It's definitely nowhere near the level of our park! Lastly I've met many visitors who came to our park just to go on certain rides such as Goliath, X-Flight and Maxx Force. Like it or not, we have an excellent collection of rides that's top tier! Single Day Ride Count Record
50 rides 8/17/2018 (Without Flash Pass - Coasters After Dark) ---- "Here we go, kids!! Here we go!!"
I've been to Silver Dollar City, which I prefer to SFGAM, so If Dollywood is anything like SDC, which i've heard, then I think I'd like it more than SFGAM. But that's just me.
^ Subjective vs. Objective
I can say I like Holiday World better than Cedar Point! But that doesn't mean it's better. Single Day Ride Count Record
50 rides 8/17/2018 (Without Flash Pass - Coasters After Dark) ---- "Here we go, kids!! Here we go!!"
SDC IS better than Six Flags Great America in every way other than coasters. The theming is immaculate, the food is way better, the shows are better, and the flat rides trounce Great America's. SDC's coasters are still good, and I rate Time Traveler very high on my rankings. When compared, Silver Dollar City's dry park beats Great America's dry park by miles. With no doubt in my mind. But I guess that's just me. Last edited by LuigiU2 on March 22nd, 2023, 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Expected SF fanboy response. No person that knows parks that isn't a SFGaM homer would agree. WOF doesn't have a hotel, they have campground, you really are showing a proud level of pure ignorance. The other poster foolishly confounded hotels with campgrounds in their list.
^ Thanks for weighing in, Sven ([schoup/bbd/DoubleB]) !
Single Day Ride Count Record
50 rides 8/17/2018 (Without Flash Pass - Coasters After Dark) ---- "Here we go, kids!! Here we go!!"
Six Flags Announces Tender Offer for its 4.875% Senior Notes due 2024
https://investors.sixflags.com/news-and ... -143707461 Six Flags Announces Pricing of $800 Million of 7.250% Senior Notes due 2031 https://investors.sixflags.com/news-and ... -224409031 This has peculiar timing to repurchase(refinance a note) & make the offer days prior to the earnings report. Makes me think the report is not good. They want to get the debt refinanced prior, as the debt markets will think worse of them after the report. Essentially rolling a note is normal usually, however the timing & saying you could use your revolver for the sum over the new note(150 M) is a little strange. Also, the new note is offered at 7.25%,,,seems low. The old note was 4.875% & that was when Federal Reserve as at 0.25-0.5% now at 4.75-5% It will be interesting if they can fill at that yield. The old note was taken out when SF was considered in much better financial shape.
I agree with you. Silver Dollar City is easily better then Great America. It's actually my favorite theme park....and I liked Great America so much I made a website about it when I was younger. Dollywood and SDC are both fantastic parks, I prefer both over SFGAm (or any Six Flags parks) and wish Six Flags could somehow capture those experiences and bring it to the Six Flags chain. Go Bulls!
Dave - SFGAmWorld Webmaster
But Herschend also operates Wild Adventures which is... kinda sad 943 Coasters around the World! Countdown to 1000!
http://sfgamworld.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15272 Runner Up of the 2017 SFGAmWorld Elimination Thread
There are a total of 7 coasters at Silver Dollar and 2 are family! How can the park possibly beat ours? I'll be the first to admit our park needs TLC in terms of maintenance and the food operations are slow, but our collection of coasters is top tier easily! As for shows at a park, that's not the reason most people visit an amusement park. And to be honest most food at amusement parks is comparable in my experience (even at Cedar Point and Dollywood). The only differentiation is speed of delivery and service. I actually like Kings Island more than Cedar Point ! I think Kings has a better atmosphere, theming and feel to it, and Kings ride collection is top tier. And Kings Island easily over Silver Dollar and Dollywood  But this whole debate is purely subjective. Again, I could opine that Holiday World is "better" than Cedar Point, but that doesn't make it so. Single Day Ride Count Record
50 rides 8/17/2018 (Without Flash Pass - Coasters After Dark) ---- "Here we go, kids!! Here we go!!"
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