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Postby Sven18 on March 4th, 2020, 12:05 pm
Sven18 wrote:Six flags stock has now reached the lowest value since 2012...$27.95 share as of 2/25 market close. SF has gone down another 15%+ since the earnings report. Though every theme park chain has been hit by virus fears that people may lessen attendance, SF has been hit more & has the most tenuous balance sheet of the competitors. SEAS & Cedar Fair all reported oganic growth, good Q4's & full 2019 results & SF didn't.

Update SF stock continues to tumble as of 11:15Am now down another 8%+ to $25.50


SF stock price is could be moving towards a potential danger zone some level, now $22.67 intraday. SF market cap is now about 1.85B with debt of 2.3B. Their EV is just 4.12B. They are becoming an even bigger potential takeover target.

Analyst report from 2/26/2019 that's when the stock was $27.95/share & not below $23
"Getting shot down by rival Cedar Fair late last year now looks like a blessing, as Six Flags now looks like the more likely takeover candidate.
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Postby Sven18 on March 9th, 2020, 9:18 am
SIx Flags stock now under trading around $19/share. With super low interest rates and their falling market Cap & Enterprise value perfect time for a someone to buy them.
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Postby UnclePennybags on March 9th, 2020, 11:07 pm
The entire market is tanking. I don't see anyone buying Six Flags until everything else shakes out. Whether this Coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic or not, it looks like it could trigger a recession. Personally, I'm on hold until I think we've hit bottom, and that may take months.
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Postby JackGlass on March 11th, 2020, 7:14 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3XGDjG52RA

This video/article says that Six Flags might have to file for bankruptcy again if the economy tanks. Is there any validity to this?
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Postby anewman35 on March 11th, 2020, 9:55 pm
JackGlass wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3XGDjG52RA

This video/article says that Six Flags might have to file for bankruptcy again if the economy tanks. Is there any validity to this?


I'm no expert, but the economy IS tanking, Six Flags wasn't doing great even before the whole economy was tanking, and there's a good chance parks will close (or at least be empty) for a while because everybody is afraid of Coronavirus. So it doesn't seem like it would be a shock...
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Postby Sven18 on March 12th, 2020, 8:13 am
anewman35 wrote:
JackGlass wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3XGDjG52RA

This video/article says that Six Flags might have to file for bankruptcy again if the economy tanks. Is there any validity to this?


I'm no expert, but the economy IS tanking, Six Flags wasn't doing great even before the whole economy was tanking, and there's a good chance parks will close (or at least be empty) for a while because everybody is afraid of Coronavirus. So it doesn't seem like it would be a shock...


There about 30 S&P companies that could go bankrupt within a month, SF would take longer. SF stock will open around 14.50 today, they were $40 a month ago. CF lost about 50% & SEAS 65%, but they were in better shape before hand.
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Postby UnclePennybags on March 12th, 2020, 3:07 pm
The fear factor is high right now. The entire "Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure" industry is vulnerable. Cruise ship companies are obviously at risk, but resorts and casinos may be in the same boat (no pun intended). And yes, amusement parks may also be in trouble. Anything having to do with discretionary activities that require consumers to concentrate in one place are suspect until we get a better understanding of the Coronavirus outbreak. It might take awhile before we find out it's not a big deal, or that it's a really big deal, or something in between.
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Postby Dan The Coaster Man on March 12th, 2020, 10:47 pm
Anyone know where I can buy one share of Six Flags and get a certificate? You know, just to say I did it.
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Postby staticshadows on March 12th, 2020, 11:12 pm
Dan The Coaster Man wrote:Anyone know where I can buy one share of Six Flags and get a certificate? You know, just to say I did it.

Most companies don't offer paper certificates anymore. If they do, a broker will charge you a $500 fee to provide a paper certificate.
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Postby Sven18 on March 13th, 2020, 10:24 am
Six Flags stock closed at $13.49 on Thurs 3/12....even as stock market is up friday morning SF stock continues to fall.. trading at $11.44. The market has little confidence in SF & there are some analyst articles bringing up the fact that this could cause bankruptcy.
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Postby Dan The Coaster Man on March 13th, 2020, 9:15 pm
staticshadows wrote:
Dan The Coaster Man wrote:Anyone know where I can buy one share of Six Flags and get a certificate? You know, just to say I did it.

Most companies don't offer paper certificates anymore. If they do, a broker will charge you a $500 fee to provide a paper certificate.


I'll just make one on word :lol:
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Postby UnclePennybags on March 19th, 2020, 8:18 am
Here's an interesting article about the beating several of the bigger players in the theme park industry have been taking over the last month:

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202003/7333

Summary:

  • Six Flags, which drew an estimated 32 million visitors in 2018 (the last year for which TEA/AECOM attendance data is available), dropped from $38.42 a share one month ago to $12.86 — a 56 percent loss.
  • Cedar Fair, which drew 25.9 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $53.97 a share to $17.34 — a 68 percent loss.
  • SeaWorld, wich drew 22.6 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $35.97 a share to $8.74 — a 76 percent loss.
Last edited by UnclePennybags on March 19th, 2020, 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby JackGlass on March 19th, 2020, 12:39 pm
Hopefully the Government sends those emergency checks out ASAP. I'm worried this is going to turn into a Great Depression

Those stock prices are truly terrifying
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Postby UnclePennybags on March 19th, 2020, 1:12 pm
UnclePennybags wrote:Here's an interesting article about the beating several of the bigger players in the theme park industry have been taking over the last month:

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202003/7333

Summary:

  • Six Flags, which drew an estimated 32 million visitors in 2018 (the last year for which TEA/AECOM attendance data is available), dropped from $38.42 a share one month ago to $12.86 — a 56 percent loss.
  • Cedar Fair, which drew 25.9 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $53.97 a share to $17.34 — a 68 percent loss.
  • SeaWorld, wich drew 22.6 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $35.97 a share to $8.74 — a 76 percent loss.

The following statement from the article doesn't seem far-fetched: "When capital-rich companies see their stock prices drop like this, they typically become a takeover target, as other companies with cash, or the ability to borrow, look to obtain the ailing corporation's assets." Maybe some player will see value in Six Flags' assets, buy them cheap, then turn around and sell off the real estate and rides to the highest bidders. That would be sad.

Also, I didn't know that the sale of Six Flags would trigger the loss of the DC Comics and Looney Tunes licensing rights...unless Six Flags was bought by Warner Brothers, the owner of those rights. Disney and Universal have their Florida and California theme parks. Maybe Warner would consider owning some regional parks again if they could get them cheap enough.
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Postby Sven18 on March 19th, 2020, 2:34 pm
UnclePennybags wrote:Here's an interesting article about the beating several of the bigger players in the theme park industry have been taking over the last month:

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202003/7333

Summary:

  • Six Flags, which drew an estimated 32 million visitors in 2018 (the last year for which TEA/AECOM attendance data is available), dropped from $38.42 a share one month ago to $12.86 — a 56 percent loss.
  • Cedar Fair, which drew 25.9 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $53.97 a share to $17.34 — a 68 percent loss.
  • SeaWorld, wich drew 22.6 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $35.97 a share to $8.74 — a 76 percent loss.


He's talking like a theme park person & not a business persons. SF is by far the most likely to be taken over. There was talk of that even before Covid b/c of their poor results the last 2 years, especially 2019. Also, the guy was so lazy that he clearly didn't read or even listen to any of their annual reports or conf calls..he citing TECOM attendance numbers when the 2019 number were available from the annual reports. Also, he doesn't know what happened in 2019 or didn't care to look it up, the three chain are not in the same boat before Covid 19. Guy doesn't get that market cap is not how you actual value a takeover price. There are measures such as Enterprise Value. ie.. in a takeover you are responsible for the debt nu owing it or paying it off in payment. Also, just b/c the market cap is 1B or whatever, the share holders would not accept such an offer unless they thought they would wiped out in a bankruptcy. They especially wouldn't accept if they have some confidence of a rebound in a year or 2 or 3. ...ie...Also, when notes are due is important, if no notes are due soon as long as they can make interest payments they can survive to try to turn things around.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on March 19th, 2020, 3:23 pm
UnclePennybags wrote:Here's an interesting article about the beating several of the bigger players in the theme park industry have been taking over the last month:

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202003/7333

Summary:

  • Six Flags, which drew an estimated 32 million visitors in 2018 (the last year for which TEA/AECOM attendance data is available), dropped from $38.42 a share one month ago to $12.86 — a 56 percent loss.
  • Cedar Fair, which drew 25.9 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $53.97 a share to $17.34 — a 68 percent loss.
  • SeaWorld, wich drew 22.6 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $35.97 a share to $8.74 — a 76 percent loss.


So based on this data (assuming it's accurate) other chains are having huge drops in market cap as well as Six Flags.

Sven - what do you advise in terms of stocks for these companies? What do you advise about a person's 401k in general? I have at least 18-20 years before I retire. I have my holdings in somewhat aggressive funds as well as S&P 500 type funds. Would love to hear your thoughts on market in general.
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Postby Sven18 on March 19th, 2020, 5:30 pm
CoasterRiderSC wrote:
UnclePennybags wrote:Here's an interesting article about the beating several of the bigger players in the theme park industry have been taking over the last month:

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202003/7333

Summary:

  • Six Flags, which drew an estimated 32 million visitors in 2018 (the last year for which TEA/AECOM attendance data is available), dropped from $38.42 a share one month ago to $12.86 — a 56 percent loss.
  • Cedar Fair, which drew 25.9 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $53.97 a share to $17.34 — a 68 percent loss.
  • SeaWorld, wich drew 22.6 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $35.97 a share to $8.74 — a 76 percent loss.


So based on this data (assuming it's accurate) other chains are having huge drops in market cap as well as Six Flags.

Sven - what do you advise in terms of stocks for these companies? What do you advise about a person's 401k in general? I have at least 18-20 years before I retire. I have my holdings in somewhat aggressive funds as well as S&P 500 type funds. Would love to hear your thoughts on market in general.


Yes, other chains have dropped, but theyr were in better shape than SF. SEAS dropping more than SF is overdone given the comparative balance sheets. The lack of a dividend is however an extra drag on SEAS.

Of the 3, SF is the one I would avoid, b/c as mentioned before, they produced a mediocre 2018 & poor 2019, while CF & SEAS were producing great years. SF will have a tougher road & have head winds of their own making. CF & SEAS have proven plans that have been working, while SF is essentially in revamp/turnaround mode. SEAS & CF will likely be great buys looking back 5 or 10yrs...CF was like $9/share in 2009 & got as high as $72 in 2018...SEAS was $9 just in the fall of 2017 & got to $36 last month.

A person with 20 yr time horizon should not really be worried. If you didn't get out before the 30% down, it would be unwise to do so now. The market is currently at a point where they don't know how to price things, wild volatility , also massive margin calls happening with forced selling. We have had astronomical valuations & multiple expansion the last 2 years. Right now some think stocks are 'values" or cheap, Well yes, if you are using the E in the P/E from last year. but, nobody knows the E...earnings will be, they just know they will be down Q1 & Q2 for sure. It could be down longer depending on the recession & whether it's V, U or L shaped recovery. The heavy dependence on consumers..70 % of the economy means things will be determined on how the consumer acts. A lot of people might scale back on their consumption. They knew they were living check to check, but this has made it even more apparent how fragile their circumstance can be. Consumer debt is at record highs for student loans, CC, mortgage & personal loans. Personal loans debt has almost doubled in the last 4 yrs & about 1/2 of it was debt consolidation from CC, but then many racked up the CC debt again. So, debt is another possible problem, will there be major defaults or bankruptcy increases at the personal level. We already know some businesses aren't going to make it and major industries are begging for bailouts. There were already a bunch of zombie companies...ie...only could pay their interest, making not profit & constantly going to lenders for more money. Shale oil has at least 50 or so zombie companies, also many in tech, & other industries..consolidation of the strong buying the weak. No recession for a so long has allowed more than healthy level of zombies.

I was predicting a market crash since the fall when Fed starting backdoor QE by providing 40 to 50 Billion to repo markets in September. They kept saying things are great while messing with the repo markets & needing 3 rate cuts last year. Great economies don't need int rates under 2% to produce 2.1% GDP. The liquidity infusion into repo markets correlated with the massive market run up last fall thru January. We were in a Fed induced bubble for years, they made it worse last fall. S&P earnings were essentially flat in 2019, yet S&P was up 30%+, that was ridiculous & was the alarm bell people should have heard. The market was ignoring all sorts of bad news, indicators, acting like the irrational exuberance in the dotcom era.

I invest in individual stocks so easy to get in & out than 401K investors, indexes, etc.. Everyone should be adjusting their portfolio for a recession. Weight things towards necessities for consumers. The gold standard tech stops will bounce back first,,,,AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, even FB...Consumer staples are good bets in a downturn...Conagra, Campbells, etc...Lower end retail FIVE, DLTR, DG, TGT....Discretionary & leisure are long term plays..they will seem like bargains years from now, but will likely have more short term downside & take longer to recover. The market based on technicals is oversold, so there will be some spring loaded rallies across the board for all stocks.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on March 22nd, 2020, 1:26 pm
^ Thanks Sven! I'm NOT changing any of my 401k holdings. I'll stand fast with what I have and I'll be Ridin' The Storm Out!
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Postby chicagoperson on March 24th, 2020, 10:23 pm
Sven18 wrote:
CoasterRiderSC wrote:
UnclePennybags wrote:Here's an interesting article about the beating several of the bigger players in the theme park industry have been taking over the last month:

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/202003/7333

Summary:

  • Six Flags, which drew an estimated 32 million visitors in 2018 (the last year for which TEA/AECOM attendance data is available), dropped from $38.42 a share one month ago to $12.86 — a 56 percent loss.
  • Cedar Fair, which drew 25.9 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $53.97 a share to $17.34 — a 68 percent loss.
  • SeaWorld, wich drew 22.6 million visitors in 2018, dropped from $35.97 a share to $8.74 — a 76 percent loss.


So based on this data (assuming it's accurate) other chains are having huge drops in market cap as well as Six Flags.

Sven - what do you advise in terms of stocks for these companies? What do you advise about a person's 401k in general? I have at least 18-20 years before I retire. I have my holdings in somewhat aggressive funds as well as S&P 500 type funds. Would love to hear your thoughts on market in general.


Yes, other chains have dropped, but theyr were in better shape than SF. SEAS dropping more than SF is overdone given the comparative balance sheets. The lack of a dividend is however an extra drag on SEAS.

Of the 3, SF is the one I would avoid, b/c as mentioned before, they produced a mediocre 2018 & poor 2019, while CF & SEAS were producing great years. SF will have a tougher road & have head winds of their own making. CF & SEAS have proven plans that have been working, while SF is essentially in revamp/turnaround mode. SEAS & CF will likely be great buys looking back 5 or 10yrs...CF was like $9/share in 2009 & got as high as $72 in 2018...SEAS was $9 just in the fall of 2017 & got to $36 last month.

A person with 20 yr time horizon should not really be worried. If you didn't get out before the 30% down, it would be unwise to do so now. The market is currently at a point where they don't know how to price things, wild volatility , also massive margin calls happening with forced selling. We have had astronomical valuations & multiple expansion the last 2 years. Right now some think stocks are 'values" or cheap, Well yes, if you are using the E in the P/E from last year. but, nobody knows the E...earnings will be, they just know they will be down Q1 & Q2 for sure. It could be down longer depending on the recession & whether it's V, U or L shaped recovery. The heavy dependence on consumers..70 % of the economy means things will be determined on how the consumer acts. A lot of people might scale back on their consumption. They knew they were living check to check, but this has made it even more apparent how fragile their circumstance can be. Consumer debt is at record highs for student loans, CC, mortgage & personal loans. Personal loans debt has almost doubled in the last 4 yrs & about 1/2 of it was debt consolidation from CC, but then many racked up the CC debt again. So, debt is another possible problem, will there be major defaults or bankruptcy increases at the personal level. We already know some businesses aren't going to make it and major industries are begging for bailouts. There were already a bunch of zombie companies...ie...only could pay their interest, making not profit & constantly going to lenders for more money. Shale oil has at least 50 or so zombie companies, also many in tech, & other industries..consolidation of the strong buying the weak. No recession for a so long has allowed more than healthy level of zombies.

I was predicting a market crash since the fall when Fed starting backdoor QE by providing 40 to 50 Billion to repo markets in September. They kept saying things are great while messing with the repo markets & needing 3 rate cuts last year. Great economies don't need int rates under 2% to produce 2.1% GDP. The liquidity infusion into repo markets correlated with the massive market run up last fall thru January. We were in a Fed induced bubble for years, they made it worse last fall. S&P earnings were essentially flat in 2019, yet S&P was up 30%+, that was ridiculous & was the alarm bell people should have heard. The market was ignoring all sorts of bad news, indicators, acting like the irrational exuberance in the dotcom era.

I invest in individual stocks so easy to get in & out than 401K investors, indexes, etc.. Everyone should be adjusting their portfolio for a recession. Weight things towards necessities for consumers. The gold standard tech stops will bounce back first,,,,AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, even FB...Consumer staples are good bets in a downturn...Conagra, Campbells, etc...Lower end retail FIVE, DLTR, DG, TGT....Discretionary & leisure are long term plays..they will seem like bargains years from now, but will likely have more short term downside & take longer to recover. The market based on technicals is oversold, so there will be some spring loaded rallies across the board for all stocks.


So you see CF as a wise investment at this time? I'm torn between Disney and CF.
I'm iffy investing in any type of seasonal chain but for the current price I'm afraid ill be kicking myself for talking myself out of it.
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Postby staticshadows on March 30th, 2020, 9:49 am
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3556190-cedar-fair-and-six-flags-risk-of-dividend-cuts
Cedar Fair and Six Flags at risk of dividend cuts

Mar. 30, 2020 7:24 AM ET|About: Cedar Fair, L.P. (FUN)|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor
Wedbush analyst James Hardiman weighs the impact on Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) and Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:SIX) of shutdowns extending into the summer or beyond.

"We believe that if the current shut-downs last much longer, the distributions/dividends will be the first to get significantly scaled back. Given where these stocks are trading, this should not come as much of a surprise to investors," he warns.

Hardiman also notes that debt covenant breaches will become a major concern. "While all three companies should be fine through 1Q, we believe FUN and subsequently SIX will likely risk covenant breaches if shutdown last too far into June," he notes.

Hardiman says FUN and SIX look to be eligible for stimulus loans, but would have to stop dividends/distributions for a year if they signed up.
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Postby momlovescoasters on March 30th, 2020, 8:55 pm
More bad news for Six Flags. Looks like a class action lawsuit pertaining to the China parks.
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Postby Sven18 on March 31st, 2020, 10:29 am
momlovescoasters wrote:More bad news for Six Flags. Looks like a class action lawsuit pertaining to the China parks.


The class actions out China is old news, mentioned previously when firms started trying to gather participants in Jan/Feb.
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Postby Sven18 on March 31st, 2020, 5:11 pm
Short-Term Stockholder Rights Plan Adopted by Six Flags....SF Board Concerned about Takeover
https://investors.sixflags.com/news-and ... -213020263

It's a defensive tactic used by a Board to act as a possible poison pill to a takeover by having a mechanism to dilute the takeover bidders % by allowing shareholders to buy additional shares at a discount(in this case 50%). SF saw shares were being accumulated, which given their price of $10 to $12 lately, it wouldn't cost much for an entity or private equity to accumulate substantial share %'s
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Postby JT2002 on April 10th, 2020, 2:23 pm
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/ ... lanet.aspx

hopefully this is a good omen that Six Flags will survive this time financially
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Postby Sven18 on April 22nd, 2020, 2:50 pm
Six Flags Q1 conf call scheduled April 30th 8AM CT. Should be even more interesting than usual.
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