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Postby Coaster Justin on June 1st, 2019, 11:32 am
JackGlass wrote:Well.... Now that it's going to be legal in Illinois. I wonder if Great America will hop on board and sell over priced joints, one free per visit with your Diamond elite membership :lol:


I've joked that if it's it legal in The US, Six Flags should sell it themed to the Rides

Goliath Gonja
Full Throttle
Maxx Force
Raging Bull
Whizzer
Demon
Twisted Colossus

It's more fun than Cedar Fair which would just call it WeedHawk
735 Coasters in 31 States and 6 Countries. Email me if you want to Know.
On My Way to 750 in Europe in 2019!!!

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Postby staticshadows on July 1st, 2019, 4:11 pm
We will have to wait until the 24th to see how accurate KeyBanc is.

https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/07/14011439/keybanc-upgrades-six-flags-says-attendance-trends-better-than-expected
KeyBanc Upgrades Six Flags, Says Attendance Trends Better Than Expected

The Analyst
Brett Andress upgraded Six Flags from Sector Weight to Outperform with a new $62 price target.

The Thesis
KeyBanc's propriety "Key First Look" credit and debit card data suggests attendance trends at Six Flags parks will rise by a total of 8% in the second quarter, Andress said in the Sunday upgrade note.

This compares to a prior growth estimate of 4% and the Street's consensus estimate of 6%, the analyst said.

Breaking down the data into core attendance versus parks that were acquired, the research firm's data suggests "core attendance" growth of 4% which may prove to be conservative, he said.

Beyond the second quarter, Six Flags will be up against easier weather compares, as last year's weather in the third quarter had an impact of about 500,000 potential guests, Andress said.

This supports the stock's near-term setup, the analyst said.

Signs of progress are materializing at the company's parks in China: Six Flags management met with local officials, he said.

At the very least, Six Flags should offer "directionally favorable commentary" around the status of the parks in these two regions, Andress said.

This should help with the "rock-bottom" sentiment surrounding Six Flags' stock, as success in China could eventually translate to $10 million to $20 million of annualized EBITDA, according to KeyBanc.
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Postby JackGlass on July 1st, 2019, 4:48 pm
Probably because they added coasters to Magic Mountain and Great America this year. In 2018 the additions to the 3 large parks (Great America, Magic Mountain and Great Adventure) Weren't that great.

2019 had a solid lineup of new attractions.
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Postby Sven18 on July 1st, 2019, 6:07 pm
JackGlass wrote:Probably because they added coasters to Magic Mountain and Great America this year. In 2018 the additions to the 3 large parks (Great America, Magic Mountain and Great Adventure) Weren't that great.

2019 had a solid lineup of new attractions.


None of the 2019 coasters are open, so they have had no impact on attendance in 2019 or any Q2 estimates. West Coast racers will be lucky to open before 2020 ride announcements. SF long term performance is not going to be dependent on attendance growth, they have essentially peaked. ie...very low growth & essentially none organic in 2017 & 2018. Revenue/EBIDTA growth is going to be by maintaining current levels essentially & getting higher per caps via memberships, dining add ons, etc.. Also, the foreign license deals b/c they require no Capex, thus outstanding margins as you only really need to pay the extra support staff for consulting, planning, etc..
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Postby Sven18 on July 4th, 2019, 4:24 pm
Dubai Park License deal cancellation deal:

DXB Entertainments(the developer ) agreed to pay SF 7.5M in FY2019 and SF will make no further claims under the settlement. SF Dubai LLC has right of first refusal agreement with regard to the intellectual property usage of the brand Six Flags and/or Six Flags Dubai for 5 years.

https://blooloop.com/news/dxb-entertain ... ags-dubai/
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 24th, 2019, 5:05 pm
"Six Flags Entertainment Corp. reported record second-quarter revenue of more than $447.2 million — up 7% from the same period in 2018."

"The revenue growth is primarily a result of an 8% uptick in attendance and a 14% spike in sponsorship business." Woo-hoo. More ads everywhere, and Roller Coaster Tycoon.

"That boost is partially the result of the company adding a five domestic parks in 2018 and a sixth in April (cough Magic Waters), as well as from a 2% year-over-year increase in the number of guests enrolled in its membership program or who have season passes."

San Antonio Business Journal
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Postby Sven18 on July 24th, 2019, 6:09 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:"Six Flags Entertainment Corp. reported record second-quarter revenue of more than $447.2 million — up 7% from the same period in 2018."

"The revenue growth is primarily a result of an 8% uptick in attendance and a 14% spike in sponsorship business." Woo-hoo. More ads everywhere, and Roller Coaster Tycoon.

"That boost is partially the result of the company adding a five domestic parks in 2018 and a sixth in April (cough Magic Waters), as well as from a 2% year-over-year increase in the number of guests enrolled in its membership program or who have season passes."

San Antonio Business Journal

The earnings report was a miss . Wall Street again punished SF stock just like after the last several reports. Prelim thoughts from press release it is again the lack of organic growth. Predictions of the benefit from new parks was not as much as expected hence the revenue miss on expectations while still a record
Last edited by Sven18 on July 28th, 2019, 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 26th, 2019, 8:12 pm
^I would think as to what they don't say in that report is that 1 reason it probably is up is because Easter was much later in 2019 compared to 2018. The actual day of Easter last year was April 1st, and this year; it was April 21st. Spring break is packed at some of these other parks; and that makes a huge difference IF Easter is more towards the first quarter compared to the second quarter.

They definitely make sure to say why attendance was down in the first quarter, but did they say it in the 2nd quarter (why it's up)? Remember, this is a statement from quarter 1
"Despite the decrease in attendance resulted from the Easter shift, total revenue in the quarter was down less than $1 million. Attendance in the quarter was down 8%, or 189,000 guests to 2.2 million. The Easter shift accounted for a loss of approximately 200,000 visits in the quarter, and as of today the attendance shift has been recovered."

lol lol So they didn't gain any people from quarter 1 to quarter 2 compared to last year?
"I've been staring at the world, waiting. All the trouble and all the pain we're facing. Too much light to be livin' in the dark. Why waste time? We only got one life. Together we can be the CHANGE. So go and let your heart burn bright"
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Postby Sven18 on July 28th, 2019, 6:04 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:^I would think as to what they don't say in that report is that 1 reason it probably is up is because Easter was much later in 2019 compared to 2018. The actual day of Easter last year was April 1st, and this year; it was April 21st. Spring break is packed at some of these other parks; and that makes a huge difference IF Easter is more towards the first quarter compared to the second quarter.

They definitely make sure to say why attendance was down in the first quarter, but did they say it in the 2nd quarter (why it's up)? Remember, this is a statement from quarter 1
"Despite the decrease in attendance resulted from the Easter shift, total revenue in the quarter was down less than $1 million. Attendance in the quarter was down 8%, or 189,000 guests to 2.2 million. The Easter shift accounted for a loss of approximately 200,000 visits in the quarter, and as of today the attendance shift has been recovered."

lol lol So they didn't gain any people from quarter 1 to quarter 2 compared to last year?


The difficulty with SF the last 3 years has been trying to get an accurate apples to apples comparison. They keep saying attendance is up and that's it's driven by new lease parks. But, when you dive into the numbers 2018 and now 2019 the new parks are producing little attendance or some of the core parks are down. Last year overall for year attendance across the chain was up 1.6M, but they had 5 new parks from June 1st 2018 till the end of the year. Now thru Q2 2019 attendance is up 550K thru the first 6 months, still isn't great with all these new parks having full benefit in 2019.

"On a comparable park basis, attendance, revenue and EBITDA grew at our legacy parks for the first six months" - If true not very much considering the contributions of the new parks.
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Postby Sven18 on August 7th, 2019, 8:54 am
Ilovthevu' wrote:^I would think as to what they don't say in that report is that 1 reason it probably is up is because Easter was much later in 2019 compared to 2018. The actual day of Easter last year was April 1st, and this year; it was April 21st. Spring break is packed at some of these other parks; and that makes a huge difference IF Easter is more towards the first quarter compared to the second quarter.

They definitely make sure to say why attendance was down in the first quarter, but did they say it in the 2nd quarter (why it's up)? Remember, this is a statement from quarter 1
"Despite the decrease in attendance resulted from the Easter shift, total revenue in the quarter was down less than $1 million. Attendance in the quarter was down 8%, or 189,000 guests to 2.2 million. The Easter shift accounted for a loss of approximately 200,000 visits in the quarter, and as of today the attendance shift has been recovered."

lol lol So they didn't gain any people from quarter 1 to quarter 2 compared to last year?


There is a responsible way to handle the calendar shift in presenting data so not to inflate based on the shift & make comparison easy. Cedar Fair just released Q2 results and they also mention the shift and give gross Q2 numbers. However, later they go into analysis of comparable operating days so it's easy to see the effect of the shift and also in what areas and how much they had real growth & not shift based.

Cedar Fair Q2
Revenue 436M increase 56M or 15% ...comparable # operating days eliminating the shift revenue up 14M or 3%
Income 63M increase 44M....comparable # operating days up 21M
ADJ EBIDTA 163M increase 36M...comparable # operating days up 7M or 5%
Attendance increase 802K....comparable # operating days down 47K

Cedar Fair also broke out some numbers thru the first 7 months, they added Schlitterbahn July 1st, Again SF doesn't break out any analysis of acquisitions effect, thus the continuous fight they have with analysts over organic growth occurring or not. SF could put that to rest easily by doing what CF did.

7 months prelim number
Revenue 877M .......(excluding Schlitterbahn) same park basis .....850M increase 31M or 4%
Attendance 16.5M...(excluding Schlitterbahn) same park basis.....increase of 213K
Out of park revenue 104M....(excluding Schlitterbahn )same park basis....increase 4M

----This makes it clear they have same park basis growth occurring..SF could easily do this to show organic growth, The problem is that they aren't getting organic growth or it's small,so SF are hiding the numbers. SF gets testy when questioned on it and say they won't break out same park basis to new parks, They wouldn't be giving anything away as there are 5 parks, so you're not giving away individual parks data.
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