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Postby Coaster Justin on June 1st, 2019, 11:32 am
JackGlass wrote:Well.... Now that it's going to be legal in Illinois. I wonder if Great America will hop on board and sell over priced joints, one free per visit with your Diamond elite membership :lol:


I've joked that if it's it legal in The US, Six Flags should sell it themed to the Rides

Goliath Gonja
Full Throttle
Maxx Force
Raging Bull
Whizzer
Demon
Twisted Colossus

It's more fun than Cedar Fair which would just call it WeedHawk
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Postby staticshadows on July 1st, 2019, 4:11 pm
We will have to wait until the 24th to see how accurate KeyBanc is.

https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/07/14011439/keybanc-upgrades-six-flags-says-attendance-trends-better-than-expected
KeyBanc Upgrades Six Flags, Says Attendance Trends Better Than Expected

The Analyst
Brett Andress upgraded Six Flags from Sector Weight to Outperform with a new $62 price target.

The Thesis
KeyBanc's propriety "Key First Look" credit and debit card data suggests attendance trends at Six Flags parks will rise by a total of 8% in the second quarter, Andress said in the Sunday upgrade note.

This compares to a prior growth estimate of 4% and the Street's consensus estimate of 6%, the analyst said.

Breaking down the data into core attendance versus parks that were acquired, the research firm's data suggests "core attendance" growth of 4% which may prove to be conservative, he said.

Beyond the second quarter, Six Flags will be up against easier weather compares, as last year's weather in the third quarter had an impact of about 500,000 potential guests, Andress said.

This supports the stock's near-term setup, the analyst said.

Signs of progress are materializing at the company's parks in China: Six Flags management met with local officials, he said.

At the very least, Six Flags should offer "directionally favorable commentary" around the status of the parks in these two regions, Andress said.

This should help with the "rock-bottom" sentiment surrounding Six Flags' stock, as success in China could eventually translate to $10 million to $20 million of annualized EBITDA, according to KeyBanc.
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Postby JackGlass on July 1st, 2019, 4:48 pm
Probably because they added coasters to Magic Mountain and Great America this year. In 2018 the additions to the 3 large parks (Great America, Magic Mountain and Great Adventure) Weren't that great.

2019 had a solid lineup of new attractions.
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Postby Sven18 on July 1st, 2019, 6:07 pm
JackGlass wrote:Probably because they added coasters to Magic Mountain and Great America this year. In 2018 the additions to the 3 large parks (Great America, Magic Mountain and Great Adventure) Weren't that great.

2019 had a solid lineup of new attractions.


None of the 2019 coasters are open, so they have had no impact on attendance in 2019 or any Q2 estimates. West Coast racers will be lucky to open before 2020 ride announcements. SF long term performance is not going to be dependent on attendance growth, they have essentially peaked. ie...very low growth & essentially none organic in 2017 & 2018. Revenue/EBIDTA growth is going to be by maintaining current levels essentially & getting higher per caps via memberships, dining add ons, etc.. Also, the foreign license deals b/c they require no Capex, thus outstanding margins as you only really need to pay the extra support staff for consulting, planning, etc..
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Postby Sven18 on July 4th, 2019, 4:24 pm
Dubai Park License deal cancellation deal:

DXB Entertainments(the developer ) agreed to pay SF 7.5M in FY2019 and SF will make no further claims under the settlement. SF Dubai LLC has right of first refusal agreement with regard to the intellectual property usage of the brand Six Flags and/or Six Flags Dubai for 5 years.

https://blooloop.com/news/dxb-entertain ... ags-dubai/
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 24th, 2019, 5:05 pm
"Six Flags Entertainment Corp. reported record second-quarter revenue of more than $447.2 million — up 7% from the same period in 2018."

"The revenue growth is primarily a result of an 8% uptick in attendance and a 14% spike in sponsorship business." Woo-hoo. More ads everywhere, and Roller Coaster Tycoon.

"That boost is partially the result of the company adding a five domestic parks in 2018 and a sixth in April (cough Magic Waters), as well as from a 2% year-over-year increase in the number of guests enrolled in its membership program or who have season passes."

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Postby Sven18 on July 24th, 2019, 6:09 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:"Six Flags Entertainment Corp. reported record second-quarter revenue of more than $447.2 million — up 7% from the same period in 2018."

"The revenue growth is primarily a result of an 8% uptick in attendance and a 14% spike in sponsorship business." Woo-hoo. More ads everywhere, and Roller Coaster Tycoon.

"That boost is partially the result of the company adding a five domestic parks in 2018 and a sixth in April (cough Magic Waters), as well as from a 2% year-over-year increase in the number of guests enrolled in its membership program or who have season passes."

San Antonio Business Journal

The earnings report was a miss . Wall Street again punished SF stock just like after the last several reports. Prelim thoughts from press release it is again the lack of organic growth. Predictions of the benefit from new parks was not as much as expected hence the revenue miss on expectations while still a record
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 26th, 2019, 8:12 pm
^I would think as to what they don't say in that report is that 1 reason it probably is up is because Easter was much later in 2019 compared to 2018. The actual day of Easter last year was April 1st, and this year; it was April 21st. Spring break is packed at some of these other parks; and that makes a huge difference IF Easter is more towards the first quarter compared to the second quarter.

They definitely make sure to say why attendance was down in the first quarter, but did they say it in the 2nd quarter (why it's up)? Remember, this is a statement from quarter 1
"Despite the decrease in attendance resulted from the Easter shift, total revenue in the quarter was down less than $1 million. Attendance in the quarter was down 8%, or 189,000 guests to 2.2 million. The Easter shift accounted for a loss of approximately 200,000 visits in the quarter, and as of today the attendance shift has been recovered."

lol lol So they didn't gain any people from quarter 1 to quarter 2 compared to last year?
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Postby Sven18 on July 28th, 2019, 6:04 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:^I would think as to what they don't say in that report is that 1 reason it probably is up is because Easter was much later in 2019 compared to 2018. The actual day of Easter last year was April 1st, and this year; it was April 21st. Spring break is packed at some of these other parks; and that makes a huge difference IF Easter is more towards the first quarter compared to the second quarter.

They definitely make sure to say why attendance was down in the first quarter, but did they say it in the 2nd quarter (why it's up)? Remember, this is a statement from quarter 1
"Despite the decrease in attendance resulted from the Easter shift, total revenue in the quarter was down less than $1 million. Attendance in the quarter was down 8%, or 189,000 guests to 2.2 million. The Easter shift accounted for a loss of approximately 200,000 visits in the quarter, and as of today the attendance shift has been recovered."

lol lol So they didn't gain any people from quarter 1 to quarter 2 compared to last year?


The difficulty with SF the last 3 years has been trying to get an accurate apples to apples comparison. They keep saying attendance is up and that's it's driven by new lease parks. But, when you dive into the numbers 2018 and now 2019 the new parks are producing little attendance or some of the core parks are down. Last year overall for year attendance across the chain was up 1.6M, but they had 5 new parks from June 1st 2018 till the end of the year. Now thru Q2 2019 attendance is up 550K thru the first 6 months, still isn't great with all these new parks having full benefit in 2019.

"On a comparable park basis, attendance, revenue and EBITDA grew at our legacy parks for the first six months" - If true not very much considering the contributions of the new parks.
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Postby Sven18 on August 7th, 2019, 8:54 am
Ilovthevu' wrote:^I would think as to what they don't say in that report is that 1 reason it probably is up is because Easter was much later in 2019 compared to 2018. The actual day of Easter last year was April 1st, and this year; it was April 21st. Spring break is packed at some of these other parks; and that makes a huge difference IF Easter is more towards the first quarter compared to the second quarter.

They definitely make sure to say why attendance was down in the first quarter, but did they say it in the 2nd quarter (why it's up)? Remember, this is a statement from quarter 1
"Despite the decrease in attendance resulted from the Easter shift, total revenue in the quarter was down less than $1 million. Attendance in the quarter was down 8%, or 189,000 guests to 2.2 million. The Easter shift accounted for a loss of approximately 200,000 visits in the quarter, and as of today the attendance shift has been recovered."

lol lol So they didn't gain any people from quarter 1 to quarter 2 compared to last year?


There is a responsible way to handle the calendar shift in presenting data so not to inflate based on the shift & make comparison easy. Cedar Fair just released Q2 results and they also mention the shift and give gross Q2 numbers. However, later they go into analysis of comparable operating days so it's easy to see the effect of the shift and also in what areas and how much they had real growth & not shift based.

Cedar Fair Q2
Revenue 436M increase 56M or 15% ...comparable # operating days eliminating the shift revenue up 14M or 3%
Income 63M increase 44M....comparable # operating days up 21M
ADJ EBIDTA 163M increase 36M...comparable # operating days up 7M or 5%
Attendance increase 802K....comparable # operating days down 47K

Cedar Fair also broke out some numbers thru the first 7 months, they added Schlitterbahn July 1st, Again SF doesn't break out any analysis of acquisitions effect, thus the continuous fight they have with analysts over organic growth occurring or not. SF could put that to rest easily by doing what CF did.

7 months prelim number
Revenue 877M .......(excluding Schlitterbahn) same park basis .....850M increase 31M or 4%
Attendance 16.5M...(excluding Schlitterbahn) same park basis.....increase of 213K
Out of park revenue 104M....(excluding Schlitterbahn )same park basis....increase 4M

----This makes it clear they have same park basis growth occurring..SF could easily do this to show organic growth, The problem is that they aren't getting organic growth or it's small,so SF are hiding the numbers. SF gets testy when questioned on it and say they won't break out same park basis to new parks, They wouldn't be giving anything away as there are 5 parks, so you're not giving away individual parks data.
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Postby staticshadows on October 2nd, 2019, 12:11 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cedar-fair-m-a-sixflags-exclusive/exclusive-six-flags-in-bid-to-acquire-cedar-fair-sources-idUSKBN1WH1ZA
Exclusive: Six Flags in bid to acquire Cedar Fair-sources

OCTOBER 2, 2019 / 11:37 AM

(Reuters) - U.S. theme park operator Six Flags Entertainment Corp (SIX.N) has approached peer Cedar Fair LP (FUN.N) with an acquisition offer, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.

Cedar Fair is considering Six Flags’ cash-and-stock offer, and there is no certainty that a deal will be reached, the sources said. Details of the offer could not be learned.

The sources asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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Postby Sven18 on October 2nd, 2019, 12:47 pm
staticshadows wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cedar-fair-m-a-sixflags-exclusive/exclusive-six-flags-in-bid-to-acquire-cedar-fair-sources-idUSKBN1WH1ZA
Exclusive: Six Flags in bid to acquire Cedar Fair-sources

OCTOBER 2, 2019 / 11:37 AM

(Reuters) - U.S. theme park operator Six Flags Entertainment Corp (SIX.N) has approached peer Cedar Fair LP (FUN.N) with an acquisition offer, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.

Cedar Fair is considering Six Flags’ cash-and-stock offer, and there is no certainty that a deal will be reached, the sources said. Details of the offer could not be learned.

The sources asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.


This already been discounted.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3503468-c ... email_link

As someone who is intensely into the stock market this feels like a pump & dump.
SF doe not have the money to buy CF. SF has 2B in debt, buying CF would make add 4B or more. Even if SF tried to offer a massive amount of SF stock it makes no sense to CF stock holders. CF stock is up 15% in the same period SF is down 25%, in the last year or so. CF is getting upgrades, SF is under pressure from the Street for lack of organic growth. CF holders would not want SF stock b/c it's tanking under SF management. There is also the uncertainty of the new CEO. JRA pulled them out of bankruptcy but his strategy has essentially reached its end, they are in transition & uncertainty. Meanwhile CF is on the rise, the most favored theme park chain by Wall Street. CF is growing organically, expanding also their resort/hotel offerings which are cash cows, Schlitterbahn has already proven to be good, making money right from the start and they got it at a great price. They also got Sawmill Creek for just 13.5M, which is the 2nd biggest booker of rooms for the outdoor sports complex and will surely do well for the indoor complex opening in January. Simply put CF has no reason to sell and SF hasn't the money. Parks/Chains sell when they are in trouble not on the rise. Even stock would not be a good deal for CF holders, as explained. When CF was in trouble and were nearly sold in 2010 they were offered a 20% premium, now they would want much more as they are in the best financial state possibly ever.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on October 2nd, 2019, 2:49 pm
^ Mergers happen all the time. I worked for Sears when we merged with Kmart (some would argue Kmart took us over). United and Continental Airlines merged. I understand some of the counterpoints, but that doesn't mean this definitely won't happen. Cedar gets 20+ more parks, including Mexico, along with the lucrative foreign licensing deals. Six Flags gets solid mgmt (per Sven's frequent reports on CF mgmt) and adds more parks to its chain. It "could" be a win-win.

The one big hurdle could be SEC approval because this could be considered a huge monopoly.
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Postby rct2123 on October 2nd, 2019, 3:14 pm
I love how you can just buy up your competition. Any type of merger or acquisition would certainly be bad news for us consumers. Let's hope this doesn't happen.
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Postby _FuryBull_330_ on October 3rd, 2019, 11:09 am
What if it’s the other way around, Cedar Fair taking control of Six Flags.

Six Flags doesn’t currently have a CEO to replace Jim Reid Anderson so if Cedar Fair was the one with most of the control over Six Flags that could solve their problem. Cedar Fair is really good at managing their parks, plus they are showing really good growth in the market. Cedar Fair could also benefit from this seeing that Six Flags is a more knowable brand in the theme park industry so that could increase their numbers quite a bit. Of course it would be bad for us consumers knowing that ticket and pass prices would go up significantly if they did this.


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Postby Sven18 on October 3rd, 2019, 11:45 am
_FuryBull_330_ wrote:What if it’s the other way around, Cedar Fair taking control of Six Flags.

Six Flags doesn’t currently have a CEO to replace Jim Reid Anderson so if Cedar Fair was the one with most of the control over Six Flags that could solve their problem. Cedar Fair is really good at managing their parks, plus they are showing really good growth in the market. Cedar Fair could also benefit from this seeing that Six Flags is a more knowable brand in the theme park industry so that could increase their numbers quite a bit. Of course it would be bad for us consumers knowing that ticket and pass prices would go up significantly if they did this.


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Finding a CEO is not that big a deal and not a reason to merge. Given SF statements they are looking for someone to see thru the membership push strategy. That is only in year 2. They have an executive search firm looking at external and internal candidates. JRA will be involved per his own comments, he's one of the biggest single individual stock holders with 250M worth of stock. He thus wants to protect his money and he will surely be getting more stock as part of his exit package.

CF and SF have completely different cultures in the parks, strategies, etc...which are essentially guided by their pricing structure. They don't mix. If anything I see CF might be interested in unloading some small parks that don't fit their move towards destination and resort type parks. There are parks that just will never be that such as MIA, WOF, etc... The caveat to that is SF hasn't bought parks, they have doing operating leases, which is something CF surely would not have interest in. I think this most likely turns out to be a big nothing burger.
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Postby rct2123 on October 3rd, 2019, 12:05 pm
I'm with you there. SF buying some of the smaller parks from CF would benefit those parks. Similarly, CF buying SF's bigger parks would benefit those parks as well, lol, like that would ever happen.
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Postby UnclePennybags on October 3rd, 2019, 9:11 pm
If this would have been the other way 'round and Cedar Fair (CF) was trying to buy Six Flags (SF), I would find this to be less surprising. I could see an old school, 1980's hostile takeover with the intent of breaking up SF for a profit. The parks that would complement the other CF parks would be kept, and the remaining pieces would be sold off to the highest bidders or local communities.

SF buying CF seems really unlikely. Could SF just be looking to acquire a single park?
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Postby jmanporty7 on October 4th, 2019, 9:31 am
If Six Flags were to acquire all the small Cedar Fair parks (Mich Adv, VF, WoF) that would actually be very beneficial for those 4 parks, as they rarely see any investments. These parks could thrive under Six Flags "every park gets something every year" business model. But I do not want Six Flags getting their grubby little hands on Cedar Fair's magnificent 7 tho... (CP, Knott's, KI, KD, Carowinds, CGA, and CW) as I think the SF business model would ruin these parks.

Dorney is a weird park in this scenario. As I do think it would benefit as a SF park, it's close proximity to SFGAdv (they are roughly 1 hr 30 min drive apart) may put off Six Flags from acquiring it.
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Postby Sven18 on October 4th, 2019, 10:32 am
CEDAR FAIR 'NOT LOOKING TO BE SOLD':

After speaking with Cedar Fair's management on Thursday, Wells Fargo analyst Timothy Conder said management did state that the company is not looking to be sold. Conder added that management conducted scheduled one-on-one meetings earlier in the week and has scheduled meetings next week, but did not participate in the B. Riley conference on Thursday based on legal advice. The analyst also reiterated that he believes a Six Flags acquisition of Cedar Fair is "highly unlikely."
He also feels the recent pullback in Six Flags shares is "overdone and unwarranted." Candor would be an "aggressive" buyer of Six Flags shares ahead of what he expects will be "solid" Q3 results from both companies. Earlier in the week, Conder told investors that Six Flags would likely need a substantial equity issuance to keep the combined company's leverage near four-times, and while both are regional operators, their cultures are different. Further, the analyst believes Six Flags would need to pay a big premium to cover the taxes of Cedar Fair's long-term investor base.



PRICE ACTION: In Friday morning trading, shares of Six Flags are up nearly 3% to $50.08, while Cedar Fair is down 5.4% to $57.75.
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Postby Sven18 on October 4th, 2019, 11:39 am
CEDAR FAIR TURNS DOWN SIX FLAGS OFFER

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3504029-c ... email_link



Cedar Fair (FUN -2.8%) turned down a $4B cash-and-stock offer from Six Flags Entertainment (SIX +2.2%), sources tell Reuters.

The theme park operator is said to have considered the ~$70 deal price plus some cash as inadequate.

Six Flags is not expected to come in with a new offer.

Cedar Fair is back to $59.26, still above where FUN shares stood when the Six Flags story first broke.
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Postby JackGlass on October 4th, 2019, 11:50 am
Thank God.

If Cedar Fair tried to purchase Six Flags I would be thrilled, not the opposite way around. lol.
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Postby Sven18 on October 4th, 2019, 2:29 pm
The offer was a ridiculous low ball offer. The equivalent of $70 share in cash and SF shares is just a 18% premium on CF's pre offer stock price. To put that in perspective, back in 2009 CF was offered a 27% premium by Apollo to buy them out and CF was in trouble then and was leveraged to about 6 to 7x. Also, the 18% premium offer is just 12% over what CF's 1 year price target. CF also has a over 6 % dividend. the offer was a super low ball and SF was acting as if CF was about to collapse like SEAS was in 2017. SF supposed interest in SEAS was surely even a more low ball than this. A legit offer based on several analyst calculations to compensate shareholders for the MLP tax benefit structure and an adequate premium would have been about $90 share.
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Postby JackGlass on October 4th, 2019, 5:04 pm
They made the right move by rejecting this horrible offer.

Just looking at the comments on social media, everyone seemed to hate this idea. Six Flags has built up a bad reputation, as being cheap and stingy when it comes to investing and taking care of their parks. Cedar Fair has built up a great reputation.

If Six Flags took over Cedar Fair, the quality of those parks would almost certainly decline. If Cedar Fair took over Six Flags, the quality of the Six Flags parks, would almost certainly increase.

Six Flags needs to invest in the parks they have and clean up their image before they try taking over companies like Cedar Fair and Sea World Entertainment.
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Postby B&MGuy35 on October 4th, 2019, 9:05 pm
JackGlass wrote:They made the right move by rejecting this horrible offer.

Just looking at the comments on social media, everyone seemed to hate this idea. Six Flags has built up a bad reputation, as being cheap and stingy when it comes to investing and taking care of their parks. Cedar Fair has built up a great reputation.

If Six Flags took over Cedar Fair, the quality of those parks would almost certainly decline. If Cedar Fair took over Six Flags, the quality of the Six Flags parks, would almost certainly increase.

Six Flags needs to invest in the parks they have and clean up their image before they try taking over companies like Cedar Fair and Sea World Entertainment.


Everyone is missing the point. Part of the offer was to keep CF board members on running the company. So it would basically transform SF into a CF run company not the other way around since CF would have control over the company.


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