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Postby anewman35 on July 24th, 2017, 8:10 pm
doubleb wrote:More possible evidence of a SF Q2 earnings miss on July 26th. This goes along with many park patrons reporting shorter than normal mid summer lines, the abundance of bonus BFF days to prop up attendance, Duffey sudden exit just a week before earnings(the sacrificial lamb). Now, major online price cuts, more than the normal grocery store discounts or coke discounts.


Question: You keep saying Q2 earnings are going to miss and attendance is down. Unless one owns Six Flags stock (I do not), why should they care? I guess it's possible that could lead to worse rides or something, but it could also lead to them deciding to improve things about the park to bring people back. And for the time being, if there are shorter than usual lines, why is that a bad thing?
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Postby anewman35 on July 24th, 2017, 9:13 pm
doubleb wrote:An earnings miss Q2 is for sure, everyone has lowered forecasts in the last week. Continued down attendance in already Q3, which is now, hence the desperation of deals and BBF, means a likely annual earnings miss. SF capital investment is based on a formula of gross revenue. Revenue down for the year means less cap exp and less/worse rides than the clone wars they currently do.


I'm still not really seeing this as a bad thing (or at least not nearly as bad a thing as you're making it out to be). From our perspective, we're not really due for anything good anyway, and if attendance is a little down, good. If they start having attendance problems on an ongoing basis? Either it's a less crowded park (good) or they get desperate and try to spend more on rides or service or something to bring people back (also good). I know you're trolling, so I don't really know why I'm even bothering to have this debate, but, yeah, I couldn't possibly care less about earnings. Keep pointing them out, I'll keep not caring.
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Postby anewman35 on July 24th, 2017, 10:04 pm
doubleb wrote:You completely don't get it. SF is adamant about not spending over 9% on Cap exp. Down attendance, down revenue means down cap exp, means even worse rides. It's not hard to understand. SF Q2 has a down graded projection of 13%. If that holds for a year the cap exp will down by almost 17M and ride expenditures by 10M, You're crazy if you think SF is going to increase investment when revenue is down. They were already planning to cut cap exp when revenue was increasing. SF went into bankruptcy by spending big when revenue didn't justify it. You homers all think facts you don't understand means trolling. . wilful ignorance is a plague of your ilk.


No, I'm afraid you completely don't get it (I also don't get why I'm a "homer", but whatever). What do you think Six Flags is going to do if, theoretically, they start losing attendance/revenue every year for a few years? Logically, are they going to keep following the same plan forever they have that's making the worse off every year? Or are they going to get some new leadership and follow some new plans to start growing again? You do understand that Six Flags plans can change, right?

I'm no "homer". I think, in many ways, Six Flags is pretty awful. But I live here. It's the park I have. So I enjoy it as much as I can. Go have a party because you're so excited that Q2 AND Q3 earnings are going to miss! I'll go enjoy the park with shorter lines.
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Postby anewman35 on July 24th, 2017, 10:27 pm
doubleb wrote:
anewman35 wrote:You prove again your lack of financially savvy. Yes, they will do something when SF can't grow revenue, ie...poor attendance they will try to maintain the EBIDTA by cutting costs. You do know that's what many companies have been doing for years. especially after the crash. Btw, Wall Street and investors love it.


I guess I shouldn't tell you then that I have a degree in Economics...

If they try to fix their (hypothetical) issues by continuously cutting costs, that at some point leads to a downward spiral where they keep cutting and because they keep cutting they keep getting less people and so on. If you assume that being the sole amusement park in the Chicagoland area is going to continue to be a viable enterprise for somebody, they'd either find a way to fix it or sell it to somebody else who could. Personally, as long as the park remains open and has some rides I like, I don't particularly care who runs it or what kind of Q2 profits they made. I'm not worried.
Last edited by anewman35 on July 24th, 2017, 10:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby RollingCoasting on July 26th, 2017, 4:06 pm
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on July 27th, 2017, 12:52 pm
^ doubleb, you almost act like you're happy that Six Flags might have a down Q2?? Why do you hate Six Flags so much?? Also businesses have down quarters from time to time, even strong companies like Walmart , Exxon-Mobil and your beloved Cedar Fair! One down quarter isn't going to push Six Flags into bankruptcy or closing.

As anewman stated, they can modify their plans if need be.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on July 27th, 2017, 1:27 pm
^ Please site your source for all your stats. You've accused other folks of making up numbers out of thin air on here before. Examples would be Six Flags 2015 Annual Report, Six Flags official earnings release from a quarter, etc.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on July 27th, 2017, 1:45 pm
doubleb wrote:
CoasterRiderSC wrote:^ Please site your source for all your stats. You've accused other folks of making up numbers out of thin air on here before. Examples would be Six Flags 2015 Annual Report, Six Flags official earnings release from a quarter, etc.



Read the annual reports, quarterlies, investor presentations, listen to or read the transcripts of the conference calls. I know you won't though or you would already know the things stated.


NO, that's NOT how citing sources works! You don't make your reader go and "find" the sources! Is that how you were able to squirm your way through your "Top college" ?? When doing a scholarly article, it's up to the WRITER to list his sources, not for the reader to go about on a scavenger hunt to find them!
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 27th, 2017, 4:01 pm
Lobster progress care of SFGAm Evaluation Squad facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/SFGAmEvaluatio ... =3&theater

^Would have liked to see the arm that is closest to the fence - see how far it is from the fence, but oh well. It's an update.

"Sources tell us that it should be open just in time for Frightfest!" Something still has to be wrong with it. That's a LONG, LONG time from now - September 20th, or something.
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Postby anewman35 on July 27th, 2017, 4:21 pm
doubleb wrote:
Ilovthevu' wrote:Lobster progress care of SFGAm Evaluation Squad facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/SFGAmEvaluatio ... =3&theater

^Would have liked to see the arm that is closest to the fence - see how far it is from the fence, but oh well. It's an update.

"Sources tell us that it should be open just in time for Frightfest!" Something still has to be wrong with it. That's a LONG, LONG time from now - September 20th, or something.



Opening would cost money. If they open it during Frightfest they can just re allocate staff from rides that don't run after the main season. SF is so cheap and poorly staffed they the only 2 times I went in 2017 the had the main ride operator on V2 checking restraints instead of having another person. That is not done on Wicked Twister or Steel Venom


We actually agree on something. Opening it now doesn't get them one extra person, but costs them money. Open it for Fright Fest and they can try to promote it as a special Fright Fest thing or whatever.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 27th, 2017, 5:45 pm
Read comments about Six Flags 2nd quarter here:
http://newsplusnotes.blogspot.com/2017/ ... nings.html

The most important negative thing I see is that per cap is down 2% which means each person that comes to the park spends less money on average. I don't know what Great Adventure is doing when they have no bins on some rides that basically tell guests DO NOT BUY OUR STUFF in bright colors! You will have to pay double for everything you buy. You win a stuffed animal, and you will have to put in a locker on every ride you visit. Pay up.

Every year / every quarter, whenever Six Flags doesn't do good in some area, they always blame it on weather. That excuse is getting old. We also know that some increased attendance has to do with an abundant of bring a friend free days + $20 / $30 days. For Great America, they also opened up the park earlier this year than last year. I know Over Texas opened much earlier also than last year - barely closed now.
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Postby BCarroll on July 27th, 2017, 10:33 pm
Today, they were handing out "boarding passes" on Superman, Goliath, and Raging Bull.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 28th, 2017, 1:52 am
"I've been staring at the world, waiting. All the trouble and all the pain we're facing. Too much light to be livin' in the dark. Why waste time? We only got one life. Together we can be the CHANGE. So go and let your heart burn bright"
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on July 28th, 2017, 9:01 am
Ilovthevu' wrote:Read comments about Six Flags 2nd quarter here:
http://newsplusnotes.blogspot.com/2017/ ... nings.html

The most important negative thing I see is that per cap is down 2% which means each person that comes to the park spends less money on average. I don't know what Great Adventure is doing when they have no bins on some rides that basically tell guests DO NOT BUY OUR STUFF in bright colors! You will have to pay double for everything you buy. You win a stuffed animal, and you will have to put in a locker on every ride you visit. Pay up.

Every year / every quarter, whenever Six Flags doesn't do good in some area, they always blame it on weather. That excuse is getting old. We also know that some increased attendance has to do with an abundant of bring a friend free days + $20 / $30 days. For Great America, they also opened up the park earlier this year than last year. I know Over Texas opened much earlier also than last year - barely closed now.


Thanks for posting this! I found especially interesting this comment:
" Increasing season-long dining pass sales is a focus that they will work on growing for the next five or even ten years. They have a low penetration so far into their market, so see a ton of room for growth on these plans. " I am wondering how they make money on the dining pass if people go like 10+ times?
Perhaps the average person buys the dining pass and only goes a few times?
I know that collecting up front for that pass (as well as the season pass) is a sound investment strategy because they can go and invest all that cash and earn, say 12% or more. I would love to see the data on average trips to the park for a season pass holder and a dining pass holder. There must be a point of equilibrium where when trips exceed that, it's better for the customer and when trips don't exceed that, it's better for Six Flags.
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Postby anewman35 on July 28th, 2017, 12:15 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:They added a 3rd week to November. :o :o
https://www.sixflags.com/greatamerica/p ... g-schedule


Interestingly, that new last weekend is actually the same as the first weekend of Holiday in the Park at most of the other Six Flags. Really feels like they're slowly expanding the season until they finally take the plunge and do it...
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Postby DejaVu2001 on July 28th, 2017, 12:31 pm
Seems to me they want to have as many chances for cold weather as possible after last year's single November weekend was disappointingly warm and provided no data for cold weather operation :lol:
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Postby RollingCoasting on July 29th, 2017, 9:20 pm
From JiggidyNDG:

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More pieces have been moved to The Lobster site

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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 29th, 2017, 10:32 pm
^Yeah, umm.. that doesn't fit. One of the arms is even outside the back fence in which they took away that back fence. Remember, they don't even have the cars on in which they need more room, and when it raises up, you need more room. For right now, google maps has the old picture still on there, and you can see how much fence space you need around the ride perimeter.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Six+F ... 87.9360473
Also, realize that the Orbit is surrounded by 2 streams of water next to it. So, someone could say just tear down the old line for the Orbit, and than you have more room. Where would you put the new line? Well, definitely next to the old line for Orbit. Well, you have a stream next to the Orbit (to the left of it), so you can't unless you build some sort of bridge.

So, maybe I could go back to the suggestion that maybe they would move this back to the Trailblazer spot?? Deconstruction around there?

They also have where they are going to put a haunted house in Southwest Territory already - next to the tea cups. So, maybe that Trailblazer area isn't for Fright Fest.

The Southwestern Lobster &
Orbit Resurrection (St. Louis is supposedly getting rid of theirs. They don't need it anyway. They have XCalibur. Can't they figure out how to get Orbit working with 3 Orbits? - Fun Spot must be geniuses. They only have 1. Orbit from Great America / original Orbit from St. Louis / Orbit from Fiesta Texas). Great America's Orbit was fine in August of 2016, and they just pull the ride from people that were fans of it, and they used the extra employees for the stupid virtual reality on the Arrow black coaster. They snuck out The Orbit without warning anyone. A year before that, it was like it's our 40th anniversary and remember all those rides that have been here since the start. What, 1-2 years later they take it out.
Last edited by Ilovthevu' on July 29th, 2017, 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby anewman35 on July 29th, 2017, 11:09 pm
I have to imagine they have some plan to fit the Lobster in that spot. I obviously have no idea if the story about them not initially realizing it wouldn't fit were true or not, but if it is an issue, they would have known that weeks ago (if not longer), and it doesn't make any sense at all that they would continue putting it together on the Orbit spot if it wasn't ultimately going to go there...
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Postby maxwellt on July 30th, 2017, 10:01 am
I have an odd feeling that we're goona get a flat package, and the lobster will be included with it, since the lobster didn't really have the biggest announcement for 2017, as the joker kinda covered that up

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Postby anewman35 on July 30th, 2017, 10:11 am
maxwellt wrote:I have an odd feeling that we're goona get a flat package, and the lobster will be included with it, since the lobster didn't really have the biggest announcement for 2017, as the joker kinda covered that up

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The Lobster shouldn't really have had any sort of announcement in 2017, because it wasn't a new ride, it was just moving, and who cares if a ride is just moving? And even if they do get a flat package, I really doubt they bother to promote such an old ride as part of it unless maybe they do a few rides (including the Lobster) in one area, but that doesn't seem very likely.
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Postby Goku1910 on July 30th, 2017, 11:34 am
I honestly wouldn't minda flat package as long as we got some decent flats. Some of ours are outdated and we could use something awesome to kill time between coasters.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on July 30th, 2017, 12:42 pm
Sadly, the most recent flats they put in are mostly disappointing in my opinion (King Chaos, Revolution, and of course stupid Jester's Wild Ride), and a lot of the older flats, in my opinion are better than the ones they just put in. I like the Big Easy Balloons, though they are kind of slow as compared to what Santa's Village has. Santa's Village is way more fun for those balloons. For me, I don't even ride the 2nd newest flats either, part of the Southwest Territory expansion.

For me, I like the old stuff the best -> Ricochet (Ricochet is in Southwest Territory, but it's OLD. It's not part of the newer rides.), liked Orbit, Condor (1992), Triple Play, Bumper Cars, Sky Trek Tower, Hometown Fun Machine, Whirligig.

This is coming from a person that really likes flat rides & thrilling flat rides.

If they put great flat after great flat ride in their most recent additions, than maybe I wouldn't be holding onto the older flat rides as much, but to me they haven't been putting in great flat ride after great flat ride. Personally, I like Ricochet the best now at the park followed by the Hometown Fun Machine, and Orbit became 3rd.

I don't trust Giant Drop anymore after the major accident at another park, so it could go. I also feel that now especially it's a ride that gets old, fast.. The lines are not what they should be for a probably $7 million piece of machinery anyway. See the problem now if you did get rid of Giant Drop, there is basically nowhere to send it to because all these Six Flags parks either have the S&S space shot rides, or a ride like Giant Drop. I don't care for Fiddler's Fling. The tea cups are so hard to spin, so that could go. The East River Crawler to me is not a fun ride, and it takes forever to load because they only have 1 employee checking that many seats with a seatbelt. The Polyp at Kiddieland was amazing, but that's at Lake Winnie amusement park. The Spider rides at carnivals are amazing. Revolution could go. King Chaos could go (painful restraint - doesn't do much).
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Postby Guy_With_A_Stick on August 2nd, 2017, 1:13 pm
The park changed the way TDK is loaded. Instead of having to cross the car to get to the bin and exit, the bin and exit are on the same side you enter. It seems a lot more efficient, albeit a tad more crowded.

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Postby Ilovthevu' on August 2nd, 2017, 1:34 pm
^That does not sound smart at all. The exit door on the left side is too close to where the employees lock the restraint before the train leaves. I don't know who comes up with these ideas. Six Flags "fixes" the things that don't need fixing, and the stuff that needs the fixing never gets fixed. Batman (outdoors) should have a line in the tunnel that separates front row from other rows.

Superman, Raging Bull, & Batman (outdoors) should have each employee walk across the row. People are not supposed to take povs, etc, etc, but look at how each employee in this video just checks each row on their own: https://youtu.be/ICPyaEkE59k?t=20s (The employees don't look like are in a hurry either, but yet they still get it out in about 1 minute (from when they open the gates). Cedar Fair understands this concept for some reason though Six Flags doesn't and I just don't understand why. You want your workers to walk the least when checking seats. Not walk / check seats / walk / check seats / walk / check seats. Instead check seat / seat / seat / seat / barley walk to next row / check seat seat seat seat / barely walk to next row, etc. I could hammer this down on these forums, and Six Flags reads this stuff, and they won't do diddly about it - with the B&Ms.

Gates into the park should open much sooner. They never even fixed the American Eagle line that goes into 2, than goes into 1, and than goes into 2 again.
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