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Postby Sven18 on May 2nd, 2020, 8:42 am
Six Flags Q1 Earnings

Revenue 103M decrease 26M(13M decrease in foreign nothing from China or Dubai)

Net Income loss of 85M increase of 15M

EBIDTA loss of 42M increase of 10M

Total Per Caps $56.60 increase $8.12/17%

Admit Per Caps $37.77 increase $7.28/24%

In Park Spend $18.83 increase 0.84

Attendance 1.6M decrease 584K/27%

Deferred Revenue 149M decrease 29M/16%

Operating Cost 106M decrease13M - reiterated 2020 deferring 20M in guest experience investments (part was increased staffing) & 10 to 20M more in non labor operating costs

Free Cash Negative 127M increase 11M

Capex 51M - 2020 Capex projected 90 to 100M reiterate 40 to 50M eliminated or deferred

Dividend 21M decrease 48M(suspended until further notice)

Liquidity 832M = 460 revolving credit line, 372 cash

----$5M spent on buying units at partnership parks SFOT/SFOG

----Active Pass Base (members + passes) 7M decrease 700K(Pass Base was 8M Q3 2019m then 7.7M Q4 end), Memberships 2.3M decrease 300K(14%) - claimed 1/2 was Covid, so still lost 150K in Q1 organically.

----Per caps were inflated by the fact this was the 1st Q1 SF could claim membership revenue since the Fall 2018 initial membership push. Inflated also by while claiming member revenue from all members Jan, Feb, March attendance was down significantly...SF estimates Covid cost 800K visits.

----SFOT has transitions to year round weekends

----SF was leveraged 4.3X before taking on net about 410M in Note debt b/c Covid 19. Total debt 2.7M+. Capital allocation strategy will be focused on paying down debt to return our net leverage ratio to between 3 times and 4 times adjusted EBITDA. Must have 150M liquidity under new debt covenants.

----Pre Covid: Attendance up 255K, single day paid admission 38%

----No Park is over 10% EBIDTA, pretty surprising since EBIDTA 2019 was 527M, nobody over 10% means everyone under 53M. Cedar Fair parks of Knotts & Cedar Point do 115 to 130M+ EBIDTA and KI does mid 60's & Wonderland is around 50. All of the top 3, possibly top 4 CF parks produce more than the best SF park.

--Almost 90% of attendance is drawn from within 150 miles

Posts: 375
Joined: September 10th, 2017, 10:28 am

Postby Sven18 on July 29th, 2020, 8:30 am
SIX FLAGS Q2 EARNINGS: SF failed to meet even low expectations of 56M revenue & loss of 0.94 share

REVENUE................19M decrease 458M or 96% (decrease of 29M from international & sponsorships)
NET INCOME............loss of 137M, loss increase of 216M
ADJUSTED EBIDTA..... loss 96M, decrease 276M
DEFERRED REVENUE...182M decrease 53M(lower pass & membership sales)
OPERATING COST...... 63M decrease 115M
FREE CASH..............loss 139M increase of 229M
CAPEX...................22M decrease 26M
LIQUIDITY................756M=296 cash + 460M revolver
ATTENDANCE............433K decrease 96% (1/2 of attendance from GAdv Safari)
TOTAL PER CAPS........35.77 decrease 6.50 or 15%
ADMISSION PER CAPS...25.32 increase 1.29 or 5%(increase mix day tickets & 24M membership revenue defer)
IN PARK SPEND..........10.45 decrease 7.79 or 43%
LEGAL RESERVES........increase 8M related to pending lawsuits
ACTIVE PASS BASE....... members + passes 4.34M decrease 2.66M or 38%(7M end of Q1, 7.7M end Q4)
MEMBERSHIPS ONLY......2.1M, decrease from 2.4M end of Q1 & 2.6M end Q4 2019

---Capex for 2020 80 to 90M total...thru Q2 spent 73M(Q1 51M + Q2 22M)
---Considering modified format Frightfest & HITP
---emphasis on trying to increase single day tickets which started Q1 trials with pre covid increase of 38%

Posts: 375
Joined: September 10th, 2017, 10:28 am

Postby Sven18 on July 29th, 2021, 8:33 am
SIX FLAGS Q2 EARNINGS: SF far surpassed very low expectations with 0.81 share profit with expected loss.

The Earnings reports has many moving parts so there is no real quarterly comps to compare like usual, though SF tried. Problem with comps to 2020 is many parks were closed, problem with 2019 comps is again while more parks were open in 2021, some were not. There is also the added factor of SF announced in Q1 they are shifting their reporting calendar so Q2 now includes July 4th, which is big time period for attendance & revenue. There is also the factor of memberships & how partial pass revenue was claimed in 2020 for extended passes good thru 2021 end. All of these factors & more mean there will not be real direct comps quarterly to 2019 last normal year till 2023 Q1.

NET INCOME............71M
FREE CASH..............190M
LIQUIDITY................714M=258 cash + 461M revolver
TOTAL PER CAPS........51.94
IN PARK SPEND..........23.26
ACTIVE PASS BASE....... members + passes 6.3M
MEMBERSHIPS ONLY......2.1M, decrease from 2.7M in 2019
PASSES ONLY...............4.2M, increase from 3.5M in 2019

---Reduction in members by 600K & increasing in passes by 700K, means potentially people are reverting back to passes & not seeing enough benefit to pay for the higher price point memberships.
---Capex thru Q1+Q2 totals 42M, SF on Q1 call said Capex would be around 90-95M for the year, now say it will be 130 to 140M, which is at Pre Covid levels.
---Per Caps were higher than what SF has seen almost ever. Admission per caps buoyed by influx in passes bought during Q2 more than normal & thus claiming revenue over shorter period. Normal big pass sale time is the fall sale, which wasn't the case last fall. SF also did some accounting changes in that part of membership payments are going to in park spend, which helped in park per caps.
---Labor costs are projected at about 40M increase for 2021, with wage increases & yet to be paid bonuses for staying on for full summer & even more for thru the fall
---SF strong attendance trends, but attendance overall hurt by lack of school groups they normally get
---looking for more cost savings with their modernization plan which they went into detail in during Q1 call
---they like the early results on cash to kiosk(lower cash handling costs), new CRM platform
---mobile dining will be rolling out more
---QR based phone Flash Pass trying to roll out more to reduce lines at redemption centers for physical FP
---trying to reduce discounting & use dynamic pricing for tickets

Posts: 375
Joined: September 10th, 2017, 10:28 am


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