Official Opening Day Weather Thread

[Aero737]

OUT OF DATE...SEE AMMENDED FORCAST HERE

A little late, but I waited until I could use a few different model runs.

Saturday Forcast: Cloudy to mostly cloudy. Morning temperatues around 42 give way to afternoon temperatues around 54 degrees. Chance of precipitation 30% in the morning. North East winds turning North Westerly during the afternoon.

Sunday Forcast: Partly Cloudy to mostly cloudy. Morning temperatues around 37 (Colder if partly cloudy). Afternoon high temperatures around 56. Chance of precipitation 10%. Blustery NW winds.

Discussion. Low pressure genesis taking place over the texas panhandle. Both forcast models in pretty good agreement of the path of the low pressure. The ETA (type of forcast model) takes the low pressure a little further south and further east which would leave us dry on saturday with partly cloudy skies. The AVN (another forcast model) takes the low pressure track a little further north where we would be in the wrap around precipitation. Fairly high realitive humidities will keep the weekend mostly cloudy except for a possible dry slot which would make it's way into the area sunday night possibly clearing out the clouds and allowing temperatures to fall more. Another system out of canada threatens to bring rain later sunday night but I did not include those POP's in the sunday forcast. Confidence will build with as each increading model run comes in, as for right now, my confidence is fairly good considering both models have put out similar forcasts the past 2 runs. Main concern, chance of rain both days.

At 48 hours out I will include an hourly forcast (6 am, 10am, 2pm, 6pm).

[Aero737]

Forcast
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Saturday: Chance of rain in the early morning hours tapering to isolated showers later in the day. Cloudy. Snow showers possible in the far northwestern areas early. Morning low of 38. High of 49. Blustery NE winds turning NW at 20 mph. Chance of precip 50%
Sunday: Chance of rain later in the afternoon. Partly to Mostly Cloudy. NW winds around 10 mph. Morning low 39. High of 55. Chance of precip 20% and very isolated.


Discussion: Model agreement of low pressure track has shifted somewhat. The ETA still spins up a very vigerous low pressure that will pass just south of here. ETA proggs chance of precip higher south east of the Chicago. AVN is forcasting the low to track near Kankakee and give us a good soaking Friday night. Saturday it puts wrap around showers for much of the day. Also, very cold temperatures could lead to lake effect/enhanced show showers early in the day saturday. Expect any snow to be short lived and no accumulation. Sunday looks like it could be much like the past few days. Instability showers develop because of marginally warm temperatures at the surface and very cold temperatures aloft. Threat from these showers include small peasized hail and cold air funnel clouds.

Expect another update around 1am.

[Aero737]

EDIT: I cleared out the posts so It's just the forcast so It's easier to read.
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Saturday: Cloudy, showers ending early. Isolated sprinkles or flurries after. Morning low of 39. High of 47, colder near the lake. NE or NW winds 10-15 mph subsiding late. Chance of rain between 10am and 6pm 30%

Sunday: Partly cloudy turning mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Morning low of 37. High of 51. West winds 10mph possibly gusty. Chance of rain between 10am and 6pm 20%
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Discussion: Model runs still fairly consistant. Only slight changes to the forcast. Satuday, concerns about the 5400m thickness line as this is often and idicator of snow. Expecting it to remain far NW of the city and gurnee. Looks like we could get a good raining on Friday night so it will be wet. I don't think there will be much along the lines of rain during SF's operating hours barring and rouge lake effect rain. Saturday night, low RH's could clear us out a little allowing temperatures to drop. Just NW of the city it's expected to approach freezing. I think that the suburbs will stay in the mid to upper 30's. Partly cloudy to start sunday. Extremely cold air aloft will make possible showers througout the day. These will be localized to the point that one town will get poured on and the other wont get a drop. Sharp temperature contour over N. Illinois sunday. Very easy for temperature to go either way....either very cold or somewhat mild (meaning 55). AVN brings a shortwave disturbance in later in the night. chance of precipitation increases slightly around 7pm.

Main concerns...chance of rain saturday and sundays low temperature. lesser of a concern is the chance of precip sunday evening.

I'll update again around 9pm.

[Dmrbug]

Hourly Summary from AccuWeather.com for Saturday and Sunday

[Galvan]

Please do not use the vulgar term "accuweather.com"

I used to use that site alot, but now i know the real truth behind them. Disgusting.

[coastercrazy111]

According to many sources the forcast for tommorrow is... A 40 percent chance of light rain early...then becoming partly cloudy by afternoon. Highs in the middle 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night: Increasing cloudiness. Lows in the middle and upper 30s. West winds around 10 mph.

and for Sunday: Mostly cloudy...breezy and cool. A 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the middle 50s. West winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by afternoon.

Sunday Night: Becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the middle 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

I have seen the similar forceast on almost all weather forecasts I have seen today.

[Aero737]

Very sory about my lack of updates, I've been busy with a 15 page paper. I'll get cracking on a forcast tonight and probably tommrow morning.

[rctfan1556]

Please do not use the vulgar term "accuweather.com"

I used to use that site alot, but now i know the real truth behind them. Disgusting.

And that is?