I dont think I got sick on Mothers Day, but I got there a little late and only stayed an hour because they closed the park early...like around 5. But I got A LOT of ride time on Batman!
*~There's a light~*
*~In the darkness~*
*~Of everybody's life~*
Saturday-AM Showers. High of 50. Gusty north winds.
Hour By Hour
7AM-Rain. Temperatures near 49. NNW winds around 10mph. Chance of precip near 90%
10AM-Showers. Overcast. Winds turning North. Temperatures steady near 50. Chance of precip near 70%
12PM-Isolated showers. Overcast. NNE winds increasing to 20mph. Temperatures steady or slowly falling. Chance of precip 40%
6PM-Mostly cloudy. Temperature around 45. NNE winds gusty. Winds around 20 mph gusting above 30mph. Chance of precip 20%
Sunday- Cold and windy. NE winds around 15mph. Temperatures (AM 40 degrees, PM 50). Little chance of rain.
All these are my forcasts not copied from any site. All using the 42904-1200Z GFS.
In case any of you were wondering how the weather was last year (Mothersday)
May 11th. High of 71 Low of 48. Average 24 hour temperature was 60 degrees. .18 inches of rain fell. The average wind speed was 24.7mph with a maximum sustained wind of 39mph out of the S. The peak gust was 53mph out of the SSE.
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
11 71 48 60 3 5 0 0.18 0.0 0 24.7 39 260 M M 10 18 53 260
I actully don't want it to rain now cause I want to enjoy opening
day without rain but if it does rain then oh well, that just means less crowds.
So I'll bring my coat and get a locker just in case.
This is where I would usually put stuff. Can't think of anything right now... =/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004
.MORNING GRIDS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST WEAK BOUNDARD JUST NORTH OF IL/WI LINE AT THIS TIME. PRECIP AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VORT MOVING ACROSS IL FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY MORNING UNTIL VORT PASSES THEN HAVE A WINDOW OF DRY WX.
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARD AND SO ON MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON VARING BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGRES MODEL TO MODEL WIHT FRONTAL POSITIONING FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH H5 TROUGH DONT FRONT TO PUSH TOO FAR SOUTH AND MOST LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF CHI. NEXT WAVE MOVES ALONG SIMILAR PATH FROM SOUTHWEST. UVV INCREASES DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FRONT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SHOWERS APPEAR TO LINGER IN MOST OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL H5 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPS WX QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN NEXT VORT SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN BELT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN CANDADA MONDAY AND DRAGS FRONT ACORSS UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY TRIGGERING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CYCLE APPEARS DRY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND TWO SYSTEMS. RECOVERY IS SO BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS LATE NEXT WEEK.
The system looks to be arriving earlier and earlier than initially thought.
Here is my 43004-1700Z Forcast for 50104-50204
Saturday 7AM- Scattered showers. Rain mainly south of Chicago. North gusty winds around 20-25mph with gusts over 35mph. Temperature around 48. 10AM-Sprinkles possible. North winds turning NE off the lake around 15mph. Temperature around 50. 3PM-NE winds. Mostly Cloudy. Temperatures around 50. 8PM- NE winds around 25mph with gusts possible over 40mph. Temperatures around 45. Mostly Cloudy turning Partly Cloudy. Chance of precip during operating hours 75%
Sunday. 7AM- Light North winds. Cold. Temperatures around 45. Mostly Cloudy 10AM-Mostly Cloudy. Light variable winds. Temps around 50 3PM-Mostly to Partly Cloudy. North Winds Temps around 50 8PM-Partly Cloudy, clearing. North winds around 5 mph. Temps around 46 Chance of precip during operating hours 20%
There you have it, the forcast is impoving (or getting worse depending on who you are-Dave ).
It's nice to see some budding meteorologists here. I myself am a meteorologist up here in Madison, Wisconsin. Anyway I just checked some of the latest models and it's looking fairly good for opening weekend, albeit a bit on the cool side. There may be a few lingering showers when the park opens, but things should dry out as the day progresses. Sunday should be dry, but quite cool. A breeze right of the lake will probably keep Gurnee in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Well, It's nice to know that we have an acuall meteorologist on these forums.
If you have time, could you post some of your notes for the 1st? I always check the models first then use the NWS forcast discussion to check my forcasts. The models took quite a swing on Tuesday (well the GFS did) and I was hesitant to call for rain as most forcasts and previous model runs were still calling for nice weather.
As for the current model runs, it looks like they are really toning down the total possible precipitation. Most of the rain looks to be occuring south of us along the warmfront.
1700Z is UTC (or zulu) time. It is a 24 hour clock that is based off of English time (one of their two timezones). They are 6 hours ahead of us during the summer and 5 hours ahead of us during the winter (Daylight savings time). So when you see 1700Z, subtract 6 and you get 1100. So it was written at 11 AM
EDIT: You wouldn't happen to have the weather for November 2nd last year, would you? I'd just like to compare that to tomorrow. If you don't, that's fine.
raging badger wrote:It's nice to see some budding meteorologists here. I myself am a meteorologist up here in Madison, Wisconsin. Anyway I just checked some of the latest models and it's looking fairly good for opening weekend, albeit a bit on the cool side. There may be a few lingering showers when the park opens, but things should dry out as the day progresses. Sunday should be dry, but quite cool. A breeze right of the lake will probably keep Gurnee in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Sounds good! The lingering showers should keep the crowds away during the morning.
This is where I would usually put stuff. Can't think of anything right now... =/
Well the Final Forecasts are in: And As of 10:15 pm on April 30th. the forecast calls for Overcast skies and showers likely in the morning up until 11am or so with overcast skies continuing throughout the day.
Well it is supposed to rain all day but hopefully that won't stop the rides from running and hopefully it won't rain at all except for in the morning till 11am.(slow down the crowds. )
Cya at the park!
This is where I would usually put stuff. Can't think of anything right now... =/