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2019 rumors, thoughts, speculation

Talk about anything that has to do with Six Flags Great America and Hurricane Harbor here.
Postby Goku1910 on April 26th, 2018, 4:11 pm
I visited STL recently and it was obvious the push for memberships there was much different than our park but overall it didn't feel any different since my premium stuff was valid there.

I have no idea how a 4D would perform there but I already know where it would probably go if they got one.
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Postby Goku1910 on April 26th, 2018, 4:13 pm
Sven18 wrote:
Goku1910 wrote:
I'm honestly surprised X-Flight was never cloned since it's legitimately an awesome coaster.


X-flight costs too much to clone across the chain. It's the most expensive coaster SF bought post bankruptcy.


For a B&M it was relatively cheap if I remember correctly. I remember enthusiasts calling it the next batman....and I'm not talking about just Six Flags parks, I'm talking any park replicating it's layout.
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Postby Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 4:14 pm
_FuryBull_330_ wrote: This is going great, their attendance in total has risen about 8% since last year.


Across the chain attendance went from 30.1M to 30.4M...that's about 1%
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Postby _FuryBull_330_ on April 26th, 2018, 4:30 pm
Sven18 wrote:
_FuryBull_330_ wrote: This is going great, their attendance in total has risen about 8% since last year.


Across the chain attendance went from 30.1M to 30.4M...that's about 1%

Where do you get this information? Anyway just saying a water park addition seems likely. I don't see us getting another coaster until 2020 or 2021.
Lightning Rod is closed again! Oh well until next time.

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Postby Ilovthevu' on April 26th, 2018, 4:31 pm
Sven18 wrote:You need to go read thru the pricing and the benefits of each. Buying a season pass makes zero sense with the current pricing structure and benefits(which I did not list in detail). Flash sale prices at the parks with separate entry for HH are not like the parks where HH is included. ie..2 park combo pass at MM was $95(during flash sale), gold membership is $94 now, memberships have not been on sale during flash traditionally. Btw, if SF really wants to push conversion to memberships they are logically going to make the pass discounts less besides their removal of past pass benefit to memberships.


It was definitely not $95 (during the Flash Sale), but they actually did offer a membership price during the Flash Sale - the same price. They upgrade you to a gold pass with the flash sale which means 2 parks, but just Magic Mountain & Magic Mountain's waterpark. Either way, it was $80.

This is the archived Magic Mountain Flash Sale page from last year.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170904131 ... son-passes

The membership is interesting because let's say you just buy your membership right now (April 2018), and the price for the cheapest membership is now $94 ($7.85 at Magic Mountain x 12 months). So, with the membership, they will renew your membership automatically for I would think, whatever price it is in April 2019. That means you never can get that Flash Sale because you bought it in April.

Now, I'm even more curious about the membership. So, you buy during one year the Flash Sale which is supposed to be the absolute cheapest price. It's for probably 5 days. Let's say that you bought on the last day or the first day of the Flash Sale. So, let's say the next year, you are no longer part of the day they have the Flash Pass sale which means they raise the rates for the membership a little bit. Maybe, you are paying in total $10 more (per person / per year) just because the next year the date you originally paid on is no longer on the day they have the Flash Pass sale. So, you are paying $40 more a year for a family of four. That kind of stinks.
Last edited by Ilovthevu' on April 26th, 2018, 4:50 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby Goku1910 on April 26th, 2018, 4:32 pm
Youd be surprised if we did earlier than that. We got two major coasters 3 years apart.
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Postby Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 4:51 pm
_FuryBull_330_ wrote:
Sven18 wrote:
_FuryBull_330_ wrote: This is going great, their attendance in total has risen about 8% since last year.


Across the chain attendance went from 30.1M to 30.4M...that's about 1%

Where do you get this information? Anyway just saying a water park addition seems likely. I don't see us getting another coaster until 2020 or 2021.


The annual reports.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on April 26th, 2018, 4:57 pm
About the attendance, 30.1 to 30.4, it really does help that more of the parks were open more during Christmas / New Years. I almost know for sure, that it was Six Flags New England first year for that. Great America was open more for those 3 weeks (in November) even though some of those days attendance wasn't good. Great America was also open earlier in the year (Last year - on Easter) than it has been for a few years. So yes, more people probably did come during the regular season, but I think a big part of it was Christmas.
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Postby Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 5:11 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:The membership is interesting because let's say you just buy your membership right now (April 2018), and the price for the cheapest membership is now $94 ($7.85 at Magic Mountain x 12 months). So, with the membership, they will renew your membership automatically for I would think, whatever price it is in April 2019. That means you never can get that Flash Sale because you bought it in April.

Now, I'm even more curious about the membership. So, you buy during one year the Flash Sale which is supposed to be the absolute cheapest price. It's for probably 5 days. Let's say that you bought on the last day or the first day of the Flash Sale. So, let's say the next year, you are no longer part of the day they have the Flash Pass sale which means they raise the rates for the membership a little bit. Maybe, you are paying in total $10 more (per person / per year) just because the next year the date you originally paid on is no longer on the day they have the Flash Pass sale. So, you are paying $40 more a year for a family of four. That kind of stinks.


The FAQ page"


When is the best time of year to sign up for a Membership?

Today is the best day to sign up for a Membership.

OK, maybe not "today." But there will never be a better day to buy a Membership. Unlike Season Passes which go on sale at various times of the year, we've structured our Membership program so that the monthly price is always the lowest it will ever be. As far as we know right now, you will never find a Membership priced lower than it is today (plans could change of course, but we honestly haven't discussed lowering the price more than it already is. These prices are as low as we feel comfortable with).

With that said, while the price won't go down, it will definitely go up. We don't know when. Probably not today or tomorrow, but at some point we will likely raise the price.




What is the total cost of Membership?*

If you mean how much will you spend on your Membership fees over the "entire life of your Membership," we really can't answer that question for you, since after the first 12 months you can keep your Membership going as long as you want.

If what you're asking is how much your Membership will cost you each month -- it will pretty much be the posted price on the website plus tax. We do not charge you a monthly processing fee, nor are there any other hidden charges.

The minimum commitment for participating in the Six Flags Membership program is 12 months.
After 12 months you can stay in the program as long as you want, or you can submit a cancellation request to end your Membership whenever you want through our online cancellation tool.




Does the Membership fee change over time?

Your Membership fee will remain consistent from one month to the next.

We of course reserve the right to raise our monthly fees every once in a while. However we will not raise your fees during your initial 12 month commitment and if we do raise your monthly fee we will give you plenty of notice to cancel (if that is what you want to do).

Our web price for Memberships -- that is, the price that new Members pay -- is definitely subject to increase over time. Unlike our Season Passes which regularly go on sale at different times of the year, we have already reduced the cost of our Memberships to the lowest possible level and do not plan to have Membership "sales."
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Postby Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 5:19 pm
Ilovthevu' wrote:About the attendance, 30.1 to 30.4, it really does help that more of the parks were open more during Christmas / New Years. I almost know for sure, that it was Six Flags New England first year for that. Great America was open more for those 3 weeks (in November) even though some of those days attendance wasn't good. Great America was also open earlier in the year (Last year - on Easter) than it has been for a few years. So yes, more people probably did come during the regular season, but I think a big part of it was Christmas.


SF attendance growth by year
2017 - 300K
2016 - 1.5M
2015 - 3M
2014 - 500K
2013 - 400K
2012 - 400K
2011 - flat
2010 - 1M
Last edited by Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby _FuryBull_330_ on April 26th, 2018, 6:04 pm
I thought because we got Goliath in 2014 that the 2014 attendance would go up, guess not.
Lightning Rod is closed again! Oh well until next time.

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Postby Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 6:13 pm
_FuryBull_330_ wrote:I thought because we got Goliath in 2014 that the 2014 attendance would go up, guess not.


The attendance numbers are for the chain year over year not SFGAm
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Postby anewman35 on April 26th, 2018, 6:25 pm
The membership push happened after last year's Flash Sale. It'll be interesting to see if they still have the traditional membership Flash Sale or if they make it worse or don't have it at all in order to push more people towards memberships.
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Postby Sven18 on April 26th, 2018, 6:44 pm
anewman35 wrote:The membership push happened after last year's Flash Sale. It'll be interesting to see if they still have the traditional membership Flash Sale or if they make it worse or don't have it at all in order to push more people towards memberships.


Memberships never had significant discounts that I recall. I didn't pay a ton of attention them b/c I was never interested. But, current structure I will likely get one over a pass. I predict, the days of massive discounts are waning. They will likely make the gold plus membership pricing so it makes sense to get it over a pass. Then make the platinum membership not much more so many will get that over gold plus membership. The monthly pricing will get people to buy higher level...$2 month for next level is mentally different to consumers than seeing $24 more in a one time payment. Even those buying the lowest membership may buy it over passes especially if you're talking families. Instead of getting a $300+ lump some for a bunch of passes split it over 12 months. Especially a family buying dining too , it could be $500 or $600 lump sum. People love no cost payment plans, CF, Hershey, BG, etc...have long had monthly payment plans on season passes.
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Postby coasterfanatic on April 26th, 2018, 10:57 pm
X Flight wont be cloned because Great America spent extra to make it unique. I agree that for the longest time Great America was not treated like the other parks. We got our own unqiue rides (Goliath, X Flight, Buccaneer Battle, etc).

But look at what we have gotten the last two years: Joker, SuperLooop. Two clones that are in nearly every other park in the chain right now.

I am not opposed to the membership. I am interested, but I already bought a season pass and dining pass during the Flash Sale, and I don't think it's worth it to convert because I probably won't use most of the Six Flags Bucks...since I don't really buy souvenirs and I have a dining pass so won't have to spend much at the park. I just think there's two many levels.

Right now, theres 2 season pass levels and 4 membership levels. Last year was the first year I visited another SF park besides Great America, which was MM. I am hoping to go to St. Louis park this year. I usually visit the water park just once a year!
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Postby _FuryBull_330_ on April 27th, 2018, 7:26 am
None of our unique rides are ever being cloned because Six Flags doesn't want to spend to much money. Yes we have gotten unique rides in the past years but I think it's time to put new stuff or unique stuff at other parks. Right now the parks that need unique stuff are: La Ronde, Great Escape, America, and St Louis. But we also have to consider the projects across sea. Building a theme park costs a lot of money which is why none of our parks is getting anything too mind blowing.
Lightning Rod is closed again! Oh well until next time.

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Postby Sven18 on April 27th, 2018, 7:57 am
_FuryBull_330_ wrote:Right now the parks that need unique stuff are: La Ronde, Great Escape, America, and St Louis. But we also have to consider the projects across sea. Building a theme park costs a lot of money which is why none of our parks is getting anything too mind blowing.


The chances of these group of parks getting unique rides is slim. Their patrons would be surely be happy with a cloned 4D. as their last coasters have been forever. Stl and SFA last coasters were relocations. so they will take new over unique.

Overseas(ie..foreign parks) have no bearing. Those projects are 100% funded by the developer SF has licensed the SF name. SF gets paid fees for the name and consulting/management as some partners are not well versed in running parks. The foreign parks pay SF 5-10M/yr pre opening and projected 10-20M/yr post opening. With the 3 new China parks announced this week, there will be 12 foreign licensed parks by 2022 and more in the works. Unfortunately all the foreign revenue does not apply towards the cap expenditure formula, only North American park revenue counts.

FYI, SF has no interest in building new parks b/c it cost 400 to 500M, they did again reiterate in Q1 call they will continue to look to buy water parks that are near current parks..ie..like they did near SFDK last year. Also stated they are all on the look out for the potential of acquiring smaller independent theme parks at the right price.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on April 27th, 2018, 10:06 am
coasterfanatic wrote:X Flight wont be cloned because Great America spent extra to make it unique. I agree that for the longest time Great America was not treated like the other parks. We got our own unqiue rides (Goliath, X Flight, Buccaneer Battle, etc).

But look at what we have gotten the last two years: Joker, SuperLooop. Two clones that are in nearly every other park in the chain right now.

I am not opposed to the membership. I am interested, but I already bought a season pass and dining pass during the Flash Sale, and I don't think it's worth it to convert because I probably won't use most of the Six Flags Bucks...since I don't really buy souvenirs and I have a dining pass so won't have to spend much at the park. I just think there's two many levels.

Right now, theres 2 season pass levels and 4 membership levels. Last year was the first year I visited another SF park besides Great America, which was MM. I am hoping to go to St. Louis park this year. I usually visit the water park just once a year!



Also don't forget about Justice League as another clone!
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Without Flash Pass - 41 rides 8/19/2016 (Coasters After Dark)

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Postby CoasterRiderSC on April 27th, 2018, 10:09 am
From a post above ---
"The minimum commitment for participating in the Six Flags Membership program is 12 months.
After 12 months you can stay in the program as long as you want, or you can submit a cancellation request to end your Membership whenever you want through our online cancellation tool."

I think the reason that Six Flags is pushing people into Memberships is what I call the "health club phenomenon": People sign up and pay their monthly dues. They get billed every month. Many people stop going but don't cancel the membership for quite some time. So Six Flags gets a monthly revenue from non-active members!

I also agree with those that don't care about water parks at other SF locations. I have never even been in our Hurricane Harbor! To me the most important aspects of Gold Season Pass are: unlimited visits at all parks, free parking, the free days and discounted days for friends, the Coasters After Dark. I like things simple and it seems that the Membership pricing structure and its tiers are too complex.

Also I don't buy too much merchandise at the park and I already have the Season Dining Pass (I had it last year and my big complaint was the wait times for food!).
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Postby benneluke on April 27th, 2018, 10:50 am
CoasterRiderSC wrote:I think the reason that Six Flags is pushing people into Memberships is what I call the "health club phenomenon":


This thread might be getting a little off topic, but add my thoughts too. Theres the "health club" effect, but going the membership route kind of guarantees that Six Flags will have a dependable monthly flow of money instead of high and low times. It makes sense business-wise but I really hate this new trend of monthly subscriptions/memberships. If they push memberships with exclusive offers above regular passes, I'm done. I dont want to be tied down to monthly payments I cant keep track of.
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Postby CoasterRiderSC on April 27th, 2018, 2:01 pm
benneluke wrote:
CoasterRiderSC wrote:I think the reason that Six Flags is pushing people into Memberships is what I call the "health club phenomenon":


This thread might be getting a little off topic, but add my thoughts too. Theres the "health club" effect, but going the membership route kind of guarantees that Six Flags will have a dependable monthly flow of money instead of high and low times. It makes sense business-wise but I really hate this new trend of monthly subscriptions/memberships. If they push memberships with exclusive offers above regular passes, I'm done. I dont want to be tied down to monthly payments I cant keep track of.


While the membership gives them regular monthly flow of cash, the flash sale gives them the ability to invest all that cash up front (ie. Net Present value) and earn a ROI. So which way is better for them? I'm not a finance or economics person so I can't answer that...
Last edited by CoasterRiderSC on May 2nd, 2018, 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Without Flash Pass - 41 rides 8/19/2016 (Coasters After Dark)

With Platinum Flash Pass - 51 rides 7/15/2016

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Postby Sven18 on April 27th, 2018, 3:42 pm
CoasterRiderSC wrote:
I think the reason that Six Flags is pushing people into Memberships is what I call the "health club phenomenon": People sign up and pay their monthly dues. They get billed every month. Many people stop going but don't cancel the membership for quite some time. So Six Flags gets a monthly revenue from non-active members!


The many reasons for the membership push were explained in detail in the Q1 conf call. The biggest were ahigher retention rate than passes, members spend more, and buy dining passes at a higher rate.


To me the most important aspects of Gold Season Pass are: unlimited visits at all parks, free parking, the free days and discounted days for friends, the Coasters After Dark. I like things simple and it seems that the Membership pricing structure and its tiers are too complex.

Exclsive ride events, ie...Coasters After Dark are a membership benefit in the chart. They surely will grandfather people in that bought gold passes last year before the benefits changes. Other gold pass perk are also being moved to memberships.

CoasterRiderSC wrote:Also I don't buy too much merchandise at the park and I already have the Season Dining Pass (I had it last year and my big complaint was the wait times for food!).


Dining benefits have changed in the new configuration that make membership worthwhile.
Deluxe dining passes have free upgrade to premium(something they always do even non flash sale) for $93. However the drink bottle is no longer included like before as a bonus. A pass holder with a dining pass must buy a bottle at full price of $30. So dining and a bottle will cost $123

In contrast a member gets a 20% up to 50% discount on dining plans...so gold member can get a premium dining pass for $749$1 more than flash sale last year). Gold member gets a 25% discount on a bottle making it $22.50...so they dining and a bottle for $94.50 ($ 29 saving than being a gold pass member). The higher levels of members get drinks included

Summary:
Gold pass $96, prem dining $92, bottle $30.total $218 (flash sale pass $65, dine $73, free bottle...total $138)
Gold member $ 86, prem dining $74, bottle $22.50 ...total $183
Plat member $ 110, prem dining $70, bottle free ......total $180
Diamond mem $146, prem dining $60, bottle free......total $206

Don't see them offering such big flash sale discounts on passes with the push towards memberships. Anybody buying now and getting dining the Platinum membership is the obvious choice.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on April 27th, 2018, 4:02 pm
Out the blue, my theory is that Buccaneer Battle is the attraction that would go away for 2020's attraction. The reason I say this is because with 2019 being a water year, Six Flags pattern would be to get rid of a water something even though it's in the regular park. Why not flumes? They are painting the flumes, and I have said you still need water rides in the regular park. For instance, the pattern is that Six Flags gets Joker, and the next year they get rid of King Chaos because it's the same style of ride. The Battle also has very shortened hours for a number of years. It's an unpopular ride. Knowing Six Flags, whatever ride they get rid of for 2020, they might shut it down after this year. That's also the pattern. Get rid of something, and leave that space empty (so they can save money on operations) for a while until they use it. Look at Ragin Cajun, Iron Wolf, Southwest Ampitheater, Pictorium (only used it for October last year, and a weekend in July).
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Postby Eagle04 on April 27th, 2018, 4:08 pm
Sven18 wrote:Does the Membership fee change over time?

Your Membership fee will remain consistent from one month to the next.

We of course reserve the right to raise our monthly fees every once in a while. However we will not raise your fees during your initial 12 month commitment and if we do raise your monthly fee we will give you plenty of notice to cancel (if that is what you want to do).

Our web price for Memberships -- that is, the price that new Members pay -- is definitely subject to increase over time. Unlike our Season Passes which regularly go on sale at different times of the year, we have already reduced the cost of our Memberships to the lowest possible level and do not plan to have Membership "sales."


Has the right to change price always been in the fine print? I bought mine a few years back when they first rolled these out and thought locking in a price was a selling point.
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Postby Ilovthevu' on April 27th, 2018, 4:12 pm
^Yeah, they definitely do change the price year to year. For Magic Mountain's Flash sale the cheapest member price was $6.65 a month. You look at Magic Mountain's cheapest member price, and it's now $7.85.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170904131 ... son-passes
https://www.sixflags.com/magicmountain/store/membership

So, it went up a $1.23 a month. $1.23 x 12 = $14.76 a year.

They are supposed to tell you if it goes up.. They can't change your price though I think for a year. So, if you buy it in November, you pay that price for 12 months no matter what, but after that, they will update whatever price it it.

And this is NOT off topic. The reason we got into this conversation is because of a new separate gate waterpark (that is theorized / not confirmed yet), and it relates to the season passes, and the membership.
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